Hi Traders! Weekly summary and review September 17th, 2021 is here. It is now time to recap and summarize the trade setups that we had during the past week. Below you will find the short explanation of all the trade setups we had in this week and how it has currently developed now.
Trading Ideas (Blog Posts)
Gold – My idea here was “On the H4 chart, the price which was moving higher created a triple wave to the upside and while measuring this triple wave using the Fibonacci expansion tool we have a key resistance zone that has formed by the 161.8%(1825.96) Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave and the 61.8%(1836.46) Fibonacci expansion level of the second wave. The price respected this key resistance zone and bounced lower from this zone. We also had a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high that has formed on 17th August 2021 and the second high that has formed on 3rd September 2021 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Currently it looks like a correction is happening, after the first leg to the downside, it looks like a flat correction is happening in the form of a range now. Until the top of this range holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further towards the key support zone formed the 38.2%(1777.56) – 50%(1760.15) Fibonacci retracement zones of the triple cycle”.
Current Scenario – On the H4 chart, based on the above-mentioned analysis my short term view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the top of the range holds. After the first move down we had a correction in the form of a range and the price which was moving inside this range, reached the top of it and broke above it, but the price then moved lower back inside the range. The price then moved lower further and has provided a fantastic move to the downside so far!
NZDUSD – My idea here was “Looking at the H4 chart, we could see that currently it looks like a flat correction is happening in the form of a range. While measuring the first wave inside this range we have two key support zones that has formed. The first key support zone is formed by the 61.8%(0.70972) – 100%(0.70609) Fibonacci expansion levels of the first wave and the bottom of the range. The second key support zone is formed by the 161.8%(0.70023) Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave. The price has currently reached the first key support zone and also we have a bullish divergence that has formed between the first low that has formed at 0.70759 and the second low that has formed at 0.70730 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as evidence of bullish pressure. Until both the key support zones hold my view remains here. If the price breaks and holds above the top of this range we may then consider it as validation for the view and may expect the price to move higher further”.
Current Scenario – In this pair the validation for the bullish view which is a valid breakout above the top of the range didn’t happen yet. Price has currently broken below the first key support zone, until the second key support zone holds my view remains bullish here. If the price moved higher, breaks and holds above the top of the range we may then consider it as validation for the view and may expect the price to move higher further. Alternatively, if the price breaks and holds below the second key support zone then this bullish view will be invalidated.
EURCHF – My idea here was “On the H4 chart the price which is moving higher has created a bullish trend pattern in the form of three higher highs, higher lows, we may consider this as evidence of bullish pressure. Generally, after a bullish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then potential continuation higher. Currently, it looks like a correction is happening, also we had two strong resistance zones that has formed and the price which was moving higher has broken above these zones and is holding above them. After the breakout these strong resistance zones are acting as two strong support zones for us. Until both these strong support zones hold my view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further”.
Current Scenario – The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. The price respected the first strong support zone and then it moved higher further and has delivered 60+ pips move so far!
You can see this move clearly on this H1 chart below.
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To your success,
Certified Financial Technician