Hi Traders! AUDNZD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On June 28th I shared this “Technical Analysis – AUDNZD Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

My Idea

On the H4 chart, the price which was moving lower has created a bullish divergence that has formed between the first low that has formed at 1.09546 and the second low that has formed at 1.09523 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the last high at 1.10505 creating higher highs, thus forming a classical setup of bullish divergence followed by bullish convergence. We may consider this as evidence of bullish pressure. Also, the price which is moving higher has broken above the most recent downtrend line which we may consider as another evidence of bullish pressure. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bullish signal here at the cross of +DI (green line) versus -DI (red line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bullish pressure. So everything looks good here for the bulls and until the strong support zone (marked in blue) shown in the image below holds my short term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further.

(Note: You can learn about a Killer Forex Strategy “Double Trend Line Principle” here)

AUDNZD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario

In this pair, my short term view was bullish and I was expecting the price to move higher further until the strong support zone holds. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the bullish convergence we had a pullback with the price creating a bullish hidden divergence between the first low that has 1.09523 and the second low that has formed at 1.09615 based on the MACD indicator. Also the price which was moving lower reached the strong support zone, respected it and bounced higher from this zone. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the short term bullish view and also, there were no signs opposing this short term bullish view. The price then moved higher further as I expected it to and delivered around 120 pips move so far!

On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. The price which was moving lower created a bullish divergence between the first low that has formed at 1.09661 and the second low that has formed at 1.09615 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the most recent downtrend line, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved higher after that and provided a nice move to the upside.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bullish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at majority of the times and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.

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