Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club – welcome to another Weekly Forex Forecast. As always, a big thank you to to Eight Cap broker  for supporting our community. With their partnership, you can enjoy exclusive offers including up to one full year of free access to Home Trader Club, trading systems, strategies, mentoring sessions, and more. Check the link below this post for full details.

This week brings us an exciting lineup across the majors, commodities, and crypto. Let’s break it down pair by pair.

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EUR/USD – Supply Zone Test and Bearish Divergence

Over the past few weeks, EUR/USD reached into the 1.19–1.20 resistance zone we’ve been watching closely. The rally stalled after the Fed cut rates but disappointed markets with a cautious tone, strengthening the dollar once again.

Technical Outlook:

• Weekly Chart: Price is testing a strong supply zone with more than 20 candles riding the upper Bollinger Band. Similar structures in the past (2020) led to meaningful corrections.

• Daily Chart: bearish divergence visible on both  MACD and RSI.

We also have three lower highs, lower lows candle pattern.

• Short-Term Levels:

  • Support: 1.17 – 1.1630

  • Resistance: 1.19 – 1.20

📌 Trading Plan: In the short term, buyers may attempt to defend the 1.17–1.1630 zone. Expect bounces, but rallies into supply remain sell opportunities. A deeper correction toward 1.15–1.14 is on the table if bearish pressure continues.

GBP/USD – Bearish Correction Before Next Rally?

The pound enjoyed a strong rally in recent weeks, but as anticipated, the supply zone rejected further upside. The Bank of England held rates, hinting at future cuts, which weighed on the pair.

Technical Outlook:

• Daily & H4 Charts: Completed a bullish run with bearish divergence, now forming a corrective structure (zigzag pattern).

• Histogram Divergence: Flipping from positive → negative → lower positive, a classical sign of sellers regaining control.

• Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 1.35 – 1.36 (broken support turned resistance)

  • Support: Break of the rising trendline opens doors for deeper pullbacks.

📌 Trading Plan: Look for rallies into 1.35–1.36 to be rejected. As long as price holds below trendline resistance, sell-the-rallies remains the strategy. Medium term, the bullish cycle isn’t over, but correction still has room to extend.

GOLD (XAU/USD) – False Breakouts on the Horizon

Gold has been flirting with false breakouts, and we may see another one developing.

Technical Outlook:

• Weekly Chart: Potential bearish divergence forming (second peak still pending). We also have over riding condition on the upper Bollinger Band

• Daily Chart: Overbought conditions, MACD divergence, and prior false breakout suggest weakness.

• Scenarios:

  1. False Breakout(s): One has already formed; another could be the trigger for reversal.

     

  2. Alternative Path: A zigzag correction – two waves down, two waves up – breaking key support would also offer a sell opportunity.

     

📌 Trading Plan: Patience is key. Wait for confirmation (false breakout or wave structure completion) before entering short. Don’t rush – let the setup form.

BITCOIN – Correction or Another Push Higher?

Bitcoin continues to attract heavy attention. We previously identified a bearish divergence, which delivered the first leg lower.

The big question: what’s next?

Technical Outlook:

• Scenario 1 (Ideal): Correction completes → bullish divergence forms → next rally resumes with the major trend.

  

• Scenario 2: One more high before reversal, as weekly structure still holds higher highs & higher lows.

  

• Key Levels:

  • Support: 105K – 100K (38–50% Fibonacci retracement)

  • Demand Zone: Prior lows + trendline support on H4

📌 Trading Plan: Watch for bullish divergence around 100K–105K. If demand holds, the bullish cycle remains intact.

A break below that zone would confirm a deeper correction.

🔧 Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club