Since the correction down at $42700, BTC(Bitcoin) has been on an upside path to fresh highs, and it registered an all-time high.
With prices contained within a consolidatory structure though, we are either in for a breakout to the upside, or a deeper correction towards the previous swing low, and even lower.
Main Scenario Sees a Triangle Breakout
My Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the main scenario we currently observe will trigger a breakout towards fresh highs.
In the main scenario, red wave (4) is a running triangle that completed at the most recent swing low near $55430.
Should this case prevail, BTCUSD will be set for a breakout very soon, targeting an extended $89180 level. This is the 61.80 Fibonacci extension of waves (3)(4). However, triangles are often seen boosting prices up to a limited 100% of their opening range, which lays around $79260. Therefore, only a break of the said level could send prices near $90k.
Flat Pattern Remains Probable below $64470
An alternative view hints at an irregular flat, either a running flat or an expanding flat.
Should prices move up to $64480 and reverse in a 5-wave motive move, then a flat will be very likely the pattern to form. In case though prices do not break blue A’s low, it will turn being a running variation. Only a break of the $42700 would allow a further decline towards, but not to, the $32960 support.
What Are the Least Likely Scenarios?
A running flat could end higher than the $42700, the $46420, which is the most often level reached, and even above the $50k as long as a 5-wave motive move ensues.
Contrary, an expanding flat could end anywhere between the $42700-$32690 zone. However, although not often, an extended C would bring prices below the $32960, and closer to the previous wave 4 near $28870 for a double fours’ bottom.
About the Author
Stavros is an licensed Forex professional, currently heading the investment research team at a reputable broker. He has demonstrated history in proprietary trading, Elliott Wave analysis and educational content writing. He is seen writing in the best sites for traders.