Hi Traders! Ethereum short term forecast follow up and update is here. On July 27th I shared this “Ethereum Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
On the H4 chart, we have a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high that has formed at 1627.90 and the second high that has formed at 1661.77 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. The price then moved lower and broke below the last low at 1461.89 thus creating lower lows which we may consider as another evidence of bearish pressure. In addition to this, based on the Stochastic Oscillator we could see that the price has reached its extreme, which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Currently it looks like a correction is happening. Until the strong resistance zone (marked in red) shown in the image below holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.
Ethereum H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
Based on the above-mentioned analysis my short term view was bearish here and until the strong resistance zone holds I was expecting the price to move lower further. The price action didn’t follow my analysis here and this idea failed. The price which was moving higher reached the strong resistance zone but the price didn’t hold in this zone as I expected it to. The price then moved higher further and we got a valid breakout above this zone thus invalidating this short term bearish view. My current view on Ethereum is neutral.
So traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand why we should always trade based on the facts and hints provided by the market and take the right actions according to that. Even though we had various facts supporting the bearish view here, the price didn’t hold in the strong resistance zone as I expected it to and broke above it, which is a contradictory sign provided by the market opposing the bearish view. Also, you should keep in mind that losses are part of trading we can’t expect every trade to go as per our plan and provide us profits. In trading, we can’t avoid losses but in order to be successful in trading, we should know how to cut losses early and how to manage the trade when the price goes in the opposite direction.
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