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🔹 EURUSD: Nearing a Critical Turning Point
Last week, we discussed the developing bearish divergence on EURUSD. While the pair hasn’t reversed yet, we’re approaching a significant turning point. The pair might attempt one final spike upward before the expected reversal begins.
Key levels and structure:
- The Bollinger Band duplication zone aligns with a supply area and a broken support now acting as resistance.
- This creates a confluence zone for a likely peak formation.
Despite fundamental activity (Fed, BOE, BOJ rate decisions, and the SNB rate cut to 0), price action on EURUSD remained largely flat. The technical setups remain valid:
Two Bearish Scenarios:
- Final Push and Reversal: Price may create a false breakout above resistance, followed by a reversal.
- ABCD Correction: Price may complete an ABCD corrective structure and break down without new highs.
Ideal plan:
- Watch for a final breakout attempt
- Look for divergence confirmation
- Entry after a clear reversal, targeting 1.14 and potentially 1.13 or lower
Market Snapshot:
- Monthly: Strongly bullish
- Weekly: +0.8%
- 24H: Slowing
Momentum is still bullish, but fading. The coming week could be decisive.
🔹 GBPUSD: Prepping for Correction Before Final Rally
GBPUSD mirrors EURUSD behavior. We saw:
- Bearish divergence on MACD
- Price still maintaining a bullish longer-term structure
We’re now likely to enter a corrective phase:
- This could take form as an ABCD or ranging pattern
- After the correction, the bullish trend is likely to resume
Long-term projection:
- Price to eventually cross 1.37 and potentially retest 1.39–1.41 zone
Short-term plan:
- Wait for correction to complete
- Watch for bullish reversal signals (divergence, breakouts, higher lows)
Market Snapshot:
- Monthly & Weekly: Neutral/Flat
- 24H: Slightly negative
The market is indecisive, which supports the case for a corrective setup before a bullish continuation.
🔹 USDJPY: Watch the Supply Zone for Sell Opportunities
USDJPY continues to follow our expected scenario:
- Price is moving into a strong supply zone where previous selling pressure began
- A short-term bounce down is possible
In the long term, there is a chance that the price is heading here either for the range of the daily chart and then break to the downside.
Alternative Scenario:
The price might complete the two waves with bearish divergence and then we may look for much bigger sells.
Key structure:
- Watching the potential daily range formation
- Bearish divergence may soon complete
- KTLI volume profile shows a key trading level, aligning with the expected reversal from the marked zones
Plan:
- Look for bearish divergence + fake highs + trendline break
- Sell the rallies if price confirms rejection from the supply area
Market Snapshot:
- Monthly: Bullish (+1%)
- Weekly: Slightly bullish (<1%)
- 24H: Weakening
With bullish momentum slowing, a reversal may be near. Focus remains on sell setups as rallies mature.
🔹 GOLD (XAUUSD): Overbought and Vulnerable
Gold remains in a highly overbought condition, as we’ve been tracking for weeks:
- Trading above the upper Bollinger Band
- Retesting broken resistance turned support
- Geopolitical tensions (Middle East) contributing to bullish sentiment
But remember: the higher it goes without correction, the sharper the reversal tends to be.
Technical view:
- Daily chart shows completed ABCD move, followed by consolidation
- Two possible paths:
Break the low → opens door for deeper correction to rising trend line
Fake high + bearish divergence → triggers next sell wave
Until key support breaks, gold may still attempt one more spike.
Plan:
- Watch for bearish divergence + reversal signs
- If key support breaks, sell the rallies becomes the dominant strategy.
🔧 Pro Trading Tip
Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.
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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club
