Hello traders! I’m Vladimir Ribakov from the Home Trader Club, and I’m excited to present this week’s Forex Weekly Forecast for July 7-11, 2025. As always, a big thanks to Eight Cap for supporting our trading community. With Eight Cap, you can enjoy exclusive access to the Home Trader Club, full access to all our trading tools, semi-automated systems, and even private mentoring sessions with me. Check out the link in the description below for more details.
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Let’s dive into the charts and explore this week’s trade setups for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold (XAU/USD).
EUR/USD Forecast
Last week, we anticipated fake peaks before a reversal, and EUR/USD has been respecting that structure with a first attempt at a false breakout. I believe EUR/USD is nearing its peak. Here’s why:
- Weekly chart shows strong resistance at the 1.18–1.20 zone (broken support turned resistance).
- Bollinger Band duplication marks this as a high-pressure area.
- Daily chart shows a 61.8% Fibonacci extension and overriding upper Bollinger Band.
- Both MACD and RSI form bearish divergence.
These signs suggest a correction is due. I anticipate a drop to 1.16, 1.14, or possibly 1.11.
4H Scenarios:
- One more fake high followed by bearish divergence and reversal.
2. Formation of a zigzag or range before breakdown.
Market Snapshot:
- 1M: +3%
- 7D: +1%
- 24H: Shrinking momentum
Bias: Nearing peak → Looking to sell the rallies
GBP/USD Forecast
The Pound delivered a textbook false breakout last week, validating our bearish divergence expectations.
Key points:
- At strong weekly resistance with Bollinger Band duplication pressure.
- Daily chart shows a peak with bearish divergence around 1.3750.
- Long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term corrections are likely.
What to expect:
- Potential second wave down (ABCD correction or zigzag).
- As long as 1.3785 holds, I’m looking to sell short-term rallies.
Even if the price creates a new high I would eventually expect a deeper correction to happen and I would expect the price to go lower to 1.34 to 1.32 area before the next buys would take control.
Market Snapshot:
- 1M: +0.9%
- 7D: +0.18%
- 24H: Flat
Bias: Correction mode → Sell rallies short-term, Buy dips long-term
USD/JPY Forecast
Last week, we identified a trendline break that would trigger sell-the-rally setups. That has occurred, followed by a retracement.
- Resistance zones are holding.
- No significant break above previous peaks.
- Consolidation suggests potential for a drop to complete second leg of bearish cycle.
Scenarios:
- Extended consolidation before breakdown.
- Retest of recent highs, then bearish continuation.
Market Snapshot:
- 1M: Neutral
- 7D & 24H: Entering negative territory
Bias: Bearish → Continue to sell rallies
Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast
Gold hasn’t moved much recently, which raises flags. When gold fails to gain downside momentum, it could mean another rally attempt is brewing before the major reversal.
Short-Term Bearish View:
- Sequence of lower highs/lows still valid.
- As long as 3340–3395 zone holds, look for sell opportunities.
Alternate Scenario:
- Gold attempts one more fake breakout to complete weekly divergence before dropping.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish → Prefer to sell rallies while resistance holds
🔧 Pro Trading Tip
Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.
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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club
