Hello traders, The new trading week opens under a shifting macro backdrop. Recent developments in the Middle East—particularly signs of a ceasefire extension and the potential reopening of the Hormuz Strait—are injecting a degree of optimism into global markets. This shift in sentiment is already influencing price action across major currency pairs and gold.

At the same time, uncertainty remains. Questions around central bank policy—especially whether the Fed will proceed with rate cuts—continue to shape expectations and volatility.

Let’s break down the key technical outlook for the week ahead.

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Let’s go straight into the charts.

EUR/USD Forecast – Bearish Pressure from Key Supply

EUR/USD continues to respect a critical resistance zone that we highlighted previously. Price action has behaved almost precisely as anticipated, with clean retests and strong reactions from supply.

Key Observations:

• Daily highs remain intact → strong resistance structure

• Formation of three-wave structure on H4 → typical corrective pattern

• Multiple false breakouts (fake peaks) → weakness in bullish continuation

From a technical perspective, this is a classic setup for a corrective move to the downside.

Outlook:

• Short-term bias: Bearish
• Expected move: Return into range, potentially deeper into the volume profile balance zone

• Confluence: Rising trendline + high-volume area

As long as daily supply holds, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. A deeper correction could later offer opportunities for buyers—but that will depend heavily on upcoming macro developments, particularly Fed policy.

GBP/USD Forecast – Bearish Divergence Signals Pullback

GBP/USD mirrors EUR/USD closely and is currently following the same structural behavior.

Key Observations:

• Price reached the anticipated resistance zone

• RSI shows bearish divergence:
  • Higher highs in price
  • Lower highs in RSI

This is a strong signal that momentum is fading.

What This Means:

• Increased probability of:
  • Pullback
  • ABCD-type correction

    

  • Range formation

    

  • Or sharp corrective drop before continuation

    

Outlook:

• Short-term bias: Bearish correction
• Target: Return to range + volume profile balance zone

  

• Longer-term: Bullish continuation remains possible after correction

  

This is not a trend reversal signal—it’s a pause before potential continuation.

USD/CAD Forecast – Strong Downtrend, Sell the Rallies

USD/CAD is currently one of the cleanest trending pairs.

Market Structure:

• Consistent lower highs and lower lows
• Strong bearish control
• No clear reversal signals

Technical Insight:

• Price riding the lower Bollinger Band
  • Typically leads to a pullback

    

  • But in strong trends, can extend before correction

    

Key Levels to Watch:

1. Primary Supply Zone (Range-based resistance)

   

2. Secondary Zone: 1.3800 – 1.3850 area
   • Volume profile resistance
   • Prior consolidation

Outlook:

• Strategy: Sell the rallies
• Bias: Bearish continuation

Any upward retrace should be treated as an opportunity to rejoin the trend.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast – Bearish Divergence at Resistance

Gold is approaching key supply zones within a broader channel structure, and signs of weakness are starting to appear.

Key Observations:

• Price near falling resistance line
• Clear bearish divergence
• Supply zones aligning with previous selling pressure

Important Zones:

1. Minor resistance zone (early rejection area)
2. Major supply zone (strong historical selling)

Outlook:

• Bias: Bearish
• Expectation: Downside reaction from resistance zones

Gold remains under pressure as long as these resistance levels hold. A move lower would align with improving risk sentiment in the broader market.

 Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club