The first week of July has already delivered significant volatility across the financial markets. Following weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, traders quickly adjusted expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility that the Fed may have reached the end of its tightening cycle, with some participants even beginning to anticipate future rate cuts.

While the fundamental narrative continues to evolve, our trading decisions remain driven by price action, market structure, and technical confirmation.

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This week we’ll examine four major markets:

• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• Gold (XAU/USD)
• Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Let’s break down what the charts are currently telling us.

EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish Trend Remains Intact

Over the previous forecast, we expected EUR/USD to complete another move lower before showing temporary bullish divergence on the MACD. Price followed that scenario remarkably well.

The important question now becomes:

Has the downtrend finished?

At this stage, the answer appears to be not yet.

Although momentum has slowed, the current price structure does not resemble a strong reversal pattern. Instead, it looks more like a corrective pause inside an existing bearish trend.

Technical Outlook

On the 4-hour timeframe, several important resistance areas are beginning to align:

• Previous swing highs acting as supply
• Broken support levels now serving as resistance

• Volume Profile balance area
• Multiple confluence zones where sellers previously entered the market

As long as price remains below these resistance clusters, rallies are likely to attract fresh selling pressure.

Trading Idea

Rather than chasing the market lower, patience may provide the better opportunity.

A corrective rally into resistance followed by bearish confirmation could offer attractive risk-to-reward selling setups.

Bias: Bearish

GBP/USD Forecast: Short-Term Battles Before Long-Term Strength

GBP/USD continues to develop according to our previous expectations.

The decline into the projected support zone was followed by an initial recovery.

Now traders face two different perspectives:

Long-Term View

The larger picture remains constructive.

There is still potential for GBP/USD to eventually revisit and possibly break above the previous monthly highs near the 1.42 region.

However, that journey is unlikely to be straightforward.

Short-Term View

The weekly timeframe continues to display bearish divergence.

Historically, this type of divergence often leads to:

• Deep ABCD corrections

• Extended consolidation ranges

Both scenarios typically produce several swings before the next major directional move develops.

Scenario One

If GBP/USD rallies first and completes bearish divergence near resistance, attention shifts toward selling opportunities around previous swing highs where supply previously entered the market.

Scenario Two

If price declines before rallying, the lower boundary of the current range may provide buying opportunities for the second corrective leg higher.

Only after that second bullish leg completes would bearish setups become attractive again.

Trading Focus

This week is less about predicting direction and more about reacting to whichever scenario the market confirms first.

Bias: Neutral to Bearish (Short Term)
Long-Term Bias: Bullish

Gold Forecast (XAU/USD): Buying the Dips Remains the Preferred Strategy

Gold continues to display one of the strongest technical structures among the major markets.

The anticipated decline reached support before several bullish signals emerged simultaneously.

Technical Confirmation

Current bullish evidence includes:

• Bullish MACD divergence

• RSI bullish divergence

• Breakout from a small wedge formation

• Higher highs and higher lows developing on lower timeframes
• Strength in both the MACD histogram and RSI

These confirmations suggest buyers are gradually regaining control.

Key Support Areas

The best buying opportunities may develop near:

• Recently broken resistance levels
• Previous swing lows
• Dynamic trendline support

As long as the latest swing low remains intact, pullbacks are likely to attract buyers.

Upside Targets

Initial objectives include:

• Retesting recent highs
• Testing the falling daily trendline resistance

Should momentum continue building, Gold may challenge even higher resistance zones in the coming weeks.

Bias: Bullish

Bitcoin Forecast: Relief Rally Before Another Decline?

Bitcoin continues to generate mixed technical signals.

Both the weekly and daily charts have developed bullish divergence, which often precedes recoveries.

However, divergence alone rarely signals a completed market bottom.

Why Caution Remains Necessary

The overall price structure continues to suggest that the current recovery may simply represent a corrective bounce.

Historically, major cryptocurrency bottoms often require:

• Multiple failed breakdowns
• Strong accumulation phases
• Clear structural reversals

At present, none of these conditions have fully developed.

Trading Outlook

Short-term rebounds remain entirely possible.

However, unless Bitcoin begins producing a stronger bullish market structure, rallies may simply create better selling opportunities before another leg lower develops.

For longer-term investors, additional patience may still be required before a sustainable bottom is confirmed.

Bias: Short-Term Bullish Bounce
Medium-Term Bias: Bearish

Market Sentiment Following the NFP Surprise

The weaker U.S. employment report has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may eventually shift toward a more accommodative stance.

Although this narrative has boosted risk assets and weakened the U.S. Dollar in the short term, traders should remember that market expectations can change rapidly as new economic data becomes available.

Rather than trading headlines alone, combining fundamental developments with technical confirmation continues to provide a more consistent trading approach.

 Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club