The new trading week presents several high-probability opportunities across the forex and commodities markets. After last week’s price action respected many of the technical levels we discussed, the focus now shifts toward whether these markets can complete their corrective structures before the next major impulsive move.
This week’s analysis covers EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold (XAU/USD), and GBP/JPY, where multiple timeframes continue to align with strong technical signals including MACD divergence, trendline resistance, supply zones, and volume profile levels.
As always, remember that trading is about probabilities—not predictions. Our goal is to identify high-quality areas where risk and reward remain favorable.
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EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish Bias Remains Intact
The Euro respected every major resistance area discussed in last week’s forecast, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
As long as the current resistance structure continues to hold, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
What We’re Watching
The market is likely preparing for another push lower that could:
- Break the previous swing low
- Test the lower trendline support
- Complete a larger corrective structure
- Eventually produce bullish MACD divergence
Several technical factors continue supporting this outlook:
- Weekly resistance zone
- Previous weekly low
- Volume Profile resistance
- Rising trendline support below current price
Two Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Extended Correction
EUR/USD may continue developing a larger zigzag correction before sellers regain control.
In this case, another rally toward resistance would likely provide an attractive selling opportunity.
Scenario 2 – Immediate Breakdown
The second possibility is an earlier breakdown below the current corrective structure.
If price begins creating lower highs and lower lows on the 4-hour chart, sellers may quickly drive the pair toward the projected downside targets.
Trading Outlook
As long as resistance remains intact, selling rallies continues to be the preferred strategy.
GBP/USD Forecast: Bearish Pressure Continues
Last week’s forecast anticipated another rally before renewed selling pressure.
Price followed that roadmap remarkably well.
Now attention shifts toward several important resistance levels that could trigger the next bearish move.
Technical Picture
Current resistance includes:
- Falling trendline resistance
- Multiple supply zones
- Previous swing highs
Even if GBP/USD attempts one final push higher, it may simply provide another opportunity for sellers.
Scenario 1:
Price might move directly from here
Scenario 2 – Watch for Divergence
False breakouts above recent highs combined with bearish MACD divergence would strengthen the bearish case significantly.
Trading Outlook
The preferred approach remains:
- Sell rallies
- Wait for bearish confirmation
- Focus on resistance rather than chasing price
Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: Short-Term Bullish, Long-Term Cautious
Gold respected the support zone highlighted in last week’s analysis.
After producing a textbook false breakout followed by a bullish engulfing pattern, buyers stepped in aggressively and pushed prices higher.
What Comes Next?
The current structure still appears corrective.
The market could continue developing:
- An ABCD correction
- A broader range
- Another leg higher before larger resistance comes into play
Important Resistance Ahead
Several technical barriers deserve close attention:
- Previous supply highs
- Falling trendline resistance
- Long-term descending resistance
Should these areas reject price, Gold could transition into a larger bearish correction.
Longer-Term View
Although short-term momentum remains constructive, rallies may eventually become selling opportunities.
A break lower after completing the correction could send Gold toward the major daily support around 3,890, making this an important level to monitor over the coming weeks.
Trading Outlook
- Short-term: Bullish momentum may continue.
- Longer-term: Watch for exhaustion and bearish reversal signals near resistance.
GBP/JPY Forecast: Multi-Timeframe Bearish Divergence Developing
GBP/JPY is one of the most interesting charts this week.
The pair is approaching a significant monthly resistance while simultaneously producing bearish divergence across multiple timeframes.
Monthly Chart
Price continues making higher highs while the MACD forms lower highs.
This creates a classic bearish divergence at a historically significant resistance level.
Weekly Chart
The weekly timeframe reinforces the same idea.
Momentum continues weakening despite higher prices.
Daily Chart
The daily chart has already begun showing early reversal characteristics with:
- Rising trendline support
- Developing bearish divergence
- Slowing upside momentum
Two Possible Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Breakdown Begins
If price breaks the recent swing low and subsequent pullbacks fail below resistance, traders can begin looking for selling opportunities.
Scenario 2 – One Final Push Higher
The market could first produce a final bullish move.
Hidden bullish divergence may form before price makes one last false breakout above recent highs.
If that occurs while higher-timeframe bearish divergence remains intact, it could create one of the strongest reversal opportunities across the FX market.
Trading Outlook
Remain patient.
Allow the market to complete its structure before committing to a position.
The larger timeframe signals continue favoring downside potential once confirmation appears.
Pro Trading Tip
Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.
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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club
