Hi Traders! AUDCAD short term forecast follow up and update is here. On April 7th I shared this “AUDCAD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, we could see that the price which was moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Also, the ADX indicator gave a bearish signal here at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25 which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Until this key resistance zone (marked in blue) shown in the image below holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to continue lower further after pullbacks.
AUDCAD H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
Based on the above-mentioned analysis, on the H1 chart, my short term view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the strong resistance zone holds. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the bearish trend pattern the pullback that I was looking for happened and then the price moved lower further delivering an excellent move to downside! We first had a small pullback and then the price moved lower further delivering around 80 pips move. Then we had a deeper pullback but most importantly the price was holding below the strong resistance zone and then the price moved lower further again as I expected it to and delivered around 200 pips move so far.
Also, on the M15 chart, after the deeper pullback the price moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider this as a fact provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower further and provided a wonderful move to the downside.
(Note: You can learn about a Killer Forex Strategy “Double Trend Line Principle” here)
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.
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If you have any further questions, don’t hesitate to drop a comment below!
Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Traders Academy Club Team
