Hi Traders! AUDUSD forecast update and follow up is here. On October 27th I shared this “AUDUSD Short Term Sell Idea Based On Multi Timeframe Analysis” post in Trading View. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea:
AUDUSD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
Based on the above – mentioned analysis my view was bearish here and I was expecting the price to continue lower further. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to and moved lower further delivering around 170 pips move.
The market provided us with various facts here supporting this bearish view. On the H1 chart the price which was moving higher created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 0.71363 and the second high that has formed at 0.71577 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as a fact provided by the market supporting the bearish view. The price then moved higher and created a double top and then the price moved lower and broke below the middle of this pattern, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view. The price then moved lower further and provided a fantastic move to the downside until it was blocked by bullish divergence on D1, H4 and H1 timeframes. As I always say when you see opposite evidences like this, you should always consider managing your trade and secure your profits (cash out or partial cash out or trailing protections or partial hedge, etc.. depending on the strategy that you work with).
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As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted us and took the right action according to that.
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To your success,
Vladimir Ribakov
Certified Financial Technician
