Hi Traders! Bitcoin short term forecast follow up and update is here. On February 28th I shared this “Bitcoin Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the HomeTrader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, and lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then a further continuation lower. Currently, it looks like a correction is happening. Also, we had two strong support zones that have formed, the price moved lower broke below these zones and is holding below them, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Currently, these strong support zones are acting as strong resistance zones for us. Until these two strong resistance zones (marked in red) shown in the image below hold my short-term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.
Bitcoin H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
Based on the above-mentioned analysis, on the H1 chart, my short-term view was bearish here and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the two strong resistance zones hold. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the bearish trend pattern, the pullback that I was looking for happened with the price reaching the first strong resistance zone, respected it and bounced lower from this zone. The price then moved lower further and delivered an amazing move to the downside!
On the H1 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. The price which was moving higher created a false break of the high at 23864.71, the price then moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower further and provided an amazing move to the downside!
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
