The U.K. began voting on the long-awaited referendum to decide whether or not it remains a member of the European Union (EU) on Thursday with markets anxiously waiting for indications on how the vote is proceeding.
Polling began at 6:00AM GMT, or 2:00AM ET, on Thursday with the voting stations open until 21:00GMT, or 17:00ET.
In the run-up to vote, opinion polls have shown a neck and neck race between those wishing to remain in the EU and those preferring a Brexit, as the vote to leave is known.
The final opinion polls released on June 22 showed a fairly tight potential outcome. A YouGov poll online came in at 51% remain to 49% leave; a ComRes/ITN poll by phone showed at 48% remain and 42% leave with 10% undecided; a TNS poll showed 41% for remain and 43% to leave with 16% undecided and an Opinium poll showed 44% in the remain camp with 45% for leave and 11% undecided.
On Thursday, an Ipsos MORI poll revealed the Remain camp taking back the lead with 52% in favor of keeping EU membership and 48% preferring a Brexit. That compared the surveyor’s June 14 poll that had shown Leave in the lead with 49% and Remain with only 43%.
Furthermore, Populous reported that 55% of people surveyed want to stay in the EU, while 45% want to leave. The 10% gap is the largest in all of the most recent polls.
Despite the fact that the majority of the surveys pointed to a close race, markets appeared to put more credence in the online booking odds along with the late upswing in Remain voters. Online betting firm Betfair showed that the probability of the U.K. voting to remain had risen to 88% on Thursday.
Sterling continued its rally against the dollar on Thursday, passing 1.49 for the first time since December, while the FTSE 100 rose to a two-month high. Stateside, S&P 500 futures were up more than 1%, suggesting the world’s principal index could move towards all-time highs.
Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to indications of the general outcome. YouGov will offer a broader look at how British citizens have voted when it publishes its survey shortly after polling stations close. The findings will be announced by Sky News sometime after 21:00GMT, or 17:00ET.
The U.K. has been divided into 382 voting areas with each one planning to declare their results when the votes have been tallied.
The first regions to report will be Wandsworth and Sunderland at 23:30GMT, or 19:30ET, with the City of London expected to release results at 23:45GMT, or 19:45ET.
Five regions estimated that the their count would be completed by 6:00AM GMT, or 2:00AM ET, on Friday.
However, if, as the recent polls have indicated, the results run neck and neck, the final verdict may not come until the last moment.
