Hi Traders! EURNZD forecast follow up and update is here. On August 12th I shared this EURNZD Technical Analysis And Forecast post in my blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
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Now let’s summarize the idea first:
My Idea
On the H4 chart, the price had created two waves to the upside and then we had a correction in the form of a triangle pattern. The price then broke above this triangle pattern and created a new high. Thus forming a bullish trend pattern, so based on this my view was bullish here and I was expecting the price to continue higher further.
In addition to this, based on the Heikin Ashi candles we had strong bullish bodies in upward moving market conditions which basically reflected a bullish environment. So until the condition changes my view remained bullish here.
EURNZD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
On the H4 chart after the triangle pattern breakout, the price moved higher further exactly as I expected it to. Also, as I mentioned above we had a bullish environment based on the Heikin Ashi candles and until the condition changes my view remains bullish here. This bullish environment didn’t change which we may consider as a fact supporting the bullish view.
In addition to this, there were no contradictory signs, the triangle pattern breakout was holding as well and the price moved higher further delivering around 170 pips move so far.
You can see this move clearly on the H1 chart below
Currently, on the H4 chart, we have a potential bearish divergence that is forming at the moment, this is something that we need to pay attention to. As I always suggest when you see contradictory signs like this, then you should consider managing your trade (cash out or partial cash out or trailing protections or partial hedge, etc.. depending on the strategy that you work with).
Note: If you want to learn about Money Management you can find it here
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted us and took the right action according to that.
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To your success,
Vladimir Ribakov
Certified Financial Technician
