Hi Traders! EURNZD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On August 14th, 2024 I shared this “EURNZD Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the  Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

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My Idea

On the H4 chart, the price which is moving higher has created a bullish trend pattern in the form of three higher highs, higher lows, we may consider this as another evidence of bullish pressure. Generally, after a bullish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then potential continuation higher. Also, currently there are no signs opposing this short term bullish view. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bullish signal here at the cross of +DI (green line) versus -DI (red line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bullish pressure. Also, we had a strong resistance zone and the price which was moving higher has broken above this zone and is holding above it. After the breakout, this strong resistance zone is acting as strong support zone for us. So based on all this, until this strong support zone shown in the image below(marked in green) holds my short-term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further.

EURNZD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario

Based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bullish here and until the strong support zone holds I was expecting the price to move higher further. The price action didn’t follow my analysis here and this idea failed. After the bullish trend pattern, the price which was moving lower reached the strong support zone but the price didn’t hold in this zone as I expected it to. The price moved lower further and we got a valid breakout below this strong support zone thus invalidating the bullish view here. So based on this my current view on EURNZD is neutral.

So traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand why we should always trade based on the facts and hints provided by the market and take the right actions according to that. Even though we had various facts supporting the bullish view, the price didn’t hold in the support zone as I expected it to and the price broke below it, which is a contradictory sign provided by the market opposing the bullish view. Also, you should keep in mind that losses are part of trading we can’t expect every trade to go as per our plan and provide us profits. In trading, we can’t avoid losses but in order to be successful in trading, we should know how to cut losses early and how to manage the trade when the price goes in the opposite direction.

Note: You can watch the webinar on how to cut losses early here

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Happy Trading!

Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.

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