Welcome to this week’s Forex Forecast. As we step into December, we enter a unique trading environment:

✔ The markets often experience the classic “Santa Claus Rally” effect
✔ At the same time, volatility tends to decline slowly as we approach year-end

This combination creates opportunities — but also requires discipline, patience, and realistic expectations.

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EURUSD Forecast – December 2025

Main Bias: Short-term bearish pressure while long-term bullish cycle still intact
Key Levels: 1.1650 – 1.1780 resistance zone
Trading Focus: Sell setups if resistance holds; Buy dips only if bullish structure rebuilds

Long-Term Outlook

The broader bullish cycle on EURUSD is not yet complete, and I continue to expect an eventual move toward 1.2200 and possibly higher before the weekly cycle finishes.

Short-Term Structure

On the daily chart, the pair completed three strong bullish waves, which typically leads to corrective behavior — either:

• An ABCD correction, or

  

• A ranging phase before continuation

  

Both remain possible.

Dropping to the 4-hour chart, price action shows:

• Three lower highs & lower lows

• Developing ABCD structure toward the downside

• Potential completion of the daily correction zone

Key Zone to Watch

The area between 1.1650 – 1.1780 (including the psychological 1.1700 round number) is a critical resistance cluster, combining:

• Multi-swing peaks

• Volume-profile balanced zone

• Classical supply area

• Bearish MACD divergence pressure building

Trading Plan – EURUSD

Bearish Plan:
As long as price remains below 1.1780, watch for bearish triggers:

• Resistance rejections

• Bearish divergence on MACD

• Failure to create higher highs

Bullish Plan:

Only if the daily chart forms clear higher highs & higher lows above the balance zone — then buy-the-dip becomes valid again.

GBPJPY Forecast – December 2025

Main Bias: Bullish continuation short-term; potential long-term bearish reversal forming
Key Support Zone: 205.00 – 205.50
Trading Focus: Buy retracements while monthly peak develops

We haven’t covered GBPJPY for a while, but now it becomes extremely attractive again.

Long-Term Picture

On the monthly chart, GBPJPY approaches major supply levels and is completing a triple wave rally alongside a forming monthly bearish divergence.

This suggests that a massive long-term reversal is building — but not yet ready.

So far, the pair continues to push higher.

Weekly & Daily Structure

• Weekly divergence is developing but not yet complete

  

• Daily chart still shows higher highs & higher lows

• No bearish divergence on MACD daily → bullish pressure intact

  
  

Short-Term (4H) Plan

The structure is clean: higher highs & higher lows.
The next buy zone sits around:

Key Buy Levels

✔ 205.00 – 205.50 demand zone
✔ Broken resistance turning to support
✔ Volume profile balance area
✔ Daily technical support

Trading Plan – GBPJPY

As long as price holds above 205.00 – 205.50:
➡️ Look for buys on retracements
The pair still has room toward the major monthly supply before a larger downturn begins.

Gold Forecast – December 2025

Main Bias: Overbought and vulnerable; two major scenarios possible
Key Levels: Watch range and last swing low for breakout
Trading Focus: Prepare for either final push to new high or breakdown from range

While Silver printed new all-time highs, Gold is lagging behind, creating an interesting divergence.

Long-Term View

Gold is sitting at very extended, overbought conditions on higher timeframes:

• Weekly extremes

  

• Multi-month peak structure

  

• Strong probability of fake highs forming

Daily Structure: Two Scenarios

1️⃣ Bullish extension scenario:
Daily chart completes another push up, then forms a bearish divergence → ideal topping structure for sell opportunities.

2️⃣ Bearish breakdown scenario:
Daily structure already forming two-wave correction.
If the range breaks down and price closes below the recent low, momentum could accelerate sharply.

This opens a surprising but technically valid downside projection toward:
👉 $3,500 – $3,400
(yes, aggressive — but structurally possible)

4H Chart – Setup Confirmation

• Watch the range boundaries

• Breakdown AND close below the low → triggers bearish plan

  

• Failed breakdown → look for continuation to a new peak and then divergence for a sell

  

Trading Plan – Gold

Bearish Setup:
Sell rallies ONLY if:
✔ Range breaks down
✔ New highs form with divergence
✔ Fake high forms (break above swing + close below)

Bitcoin Forecast – December 2025

Main Bias: Rally is temporary; bearish continuation expected afterward
Key Resistance Zone: 95,000 – 98,000 and up to 106,000
Trading Focus: Sell zones at top of the corrective rally

Bitcoin remains one of the most discussed assets lately.

Directional Expectation

I remain with my long-standing view:
➡️ The bearish move is not over
➡️ Current rallies are corrective, not impulsive

Daily Chart Highlights

• Lower highs & lower lows remain intact

• RSI rebounded from oversold → supports a temporary bullish correction

  

• MACD likely to form bearish hidden divergence as price approaches resistance

  

Key Sell Zone

Between:
👉 95,000 – 98,000
and extended range:
👉 Up to 106,000

This area contains:

• Broken supports acting as resistance

• Last significant swing highs

• Major supply zone

4H Chart – Short-Term Buy Before the Big Sell

As long as the following supports hold:

• Broken resistance acting as fresh support

• Last low acting as demand
  Bitcoin may continue its push upward before the next major sell-off.

 Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club