As we move deeper into December, markets are transitioning into a different rhythm. Volatility is gradually slowing, liquidity is thinning, and price action becomes more selective — yet opportunities are still very much present for those who understand market structure and timing.

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 Watch the Full Weekly Forecast Video

Let’s break down this week’s key instruments: EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold, and Bitcoin, combining higher-timeframe structure with tactical execution zones.

Market Environment: Fed Rate Cut & Dollar Pressure

The major macro driver over the past weeks was the Federal Reserve rate cut, along with subtle but important signals suggesting further easing could follow in early 2026.
Markets reacted accordingly:

• Risk sentiment improved

• The US dollar weakened broadly

• Anti-dollar pairs gained momentum

From a technical standpoint, this shift aligns well with what price structure has already been communicating.

EURUSD – Weekly Cycle Continues Higher

In previous forecasts, we outlined two primary scenarios for EURUSD:

1. A return to higher highs and higher lows, signaling bullish continuation

2. A breakdown below the range toward 1.1140–1.1110 before any new trend

Scenario one has clearly played out.

Technical Structure

• Weekly structure remains bullish

• Price is trending cleanly with no bearish divergences

• The broader weekly cycle has not yet completed

From a cycle perspective, EURUSD still has room to push higher — potentially toward 1.2000, and more realistically 1.2200–1.2400, before sellers regain control.

Key Trading Zones (Buy-the-Dip Bias)

As long as price holds above these levels, the bullish structure remains intact:

• Broken resistance acting as support

• 1.1670 area (clustered former resistance)

• 1.1610–1.1620 (last major higher low + trendline confluence)

Trading Plan

• Bias: Buy retracements

• Execution: Wait for price rejection, not blind entries

• Momentum and structure strongly favor buyers

Market snapshot data supports this view, with EURUSD showing solid gains over the 1-month and 7-day periods, confirming buyer control.

USDJPY – Bullish Structure Still Dominant

Despite political changes in Japan and ongoing speculation around policy shifts, USDJPY continues to respect its bullish technical structure.

Higher-Timeframe Context

• Long-term structure remains intact

• No confirmed trend reversal on weekly or monthly charts

• A multi-wave expansion into 2026 remains technically valid

  

Even the previous false breakout did not produce a structural shift — an important signal of underlying strength.

Key Support Zones

As long as these levels hold, the strategy remains unchanged:

• 154.00–154.50 (broken resistance turned support)

• 150.00 area (daily structure low + rising trendline)

Trading Plan

• Bias: Buy dips

• Confirmation: Look for clear rejection near support

• Avoid emotional chasing — patience matters

Broad market metrics continue to show buyers in control despite short-term fluctuations.

Gold – Late-Stage Rally, Peak Formation in Progress

Gold remains in extreme overbought territory on higher timeframes. However, overbought does not mean immediate reversal — a common mistake among traders.

Bigger Picture

• Monthly and weekly charts signal exhaustion

• Price is slowing, suggesting peak formation, not collapse

• A deeper correction toward 3500 or even 3300 remains likely once the peak completes

This process often unfolds gradually — rounding tops, divergences, false breakouts — before the real move begins.

Two Active Scenarios

Short-Term (Still Bullish)

As long as structure holds:

• Broken resistance at 4250–4230

• Rising trendline

• Demand zone around 4200

➡ Buy retracements only with confirmation

Medium-Term (Bearish Setup Building)

For a sell scenario, we want to see:

• A final higher high

• Daily bearish divergence

• Failed breakouts signaling seller entry

This setup is more likely to mature into 2026, especially with holiday liquidity fading.

Bitcoin – Corrective Phase Not Finished

Bitcoin remains one of the most misunderstood markets at this stage. While optimism dominates headlines, technical structure tells a more cautious story.

Long-Term View

• Weekly cycle suggests a corrective phase

• Bearish pressure has not fully played out

• Bias remains: Sell rallies

This does not mean straight-line downside — corrections could be in the form of double wave down.

Or in the form of a range

Key Resistance Zones (Sell Areas)

• 100,000 (psychological + structural resistance)

• 108,000–112,000 (previous seller control zone)

Rallies into these areas are likely to face renewed selling pressure.

Short-Term Support Zones (Aggressive Buys Only)

For tactical, short-term trades:

• 88,000

• 85,000

These levels may offer temporary rebounds, but they are counter-trend trades and require strict risk control.

 Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club