The market is moving—and the market is nervous. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in the Middle East, are creating uncertainty across global financial markets. This fear is clearly reflected in price action, risk sentiment, and expectations around monetary policy.
One of the key developments is the shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. The probability of rate cuts has decreased, strengthening the US Dollar. As long as geopolitical pressure remains, this dynamic is likely to persist.
In this weekly Forex forecast, we break down the key opportunities across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold (XAU/USD), and the S&P 500, focusing on high-probability trading setups for the week ahead.
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EUR/USD Forecast – Bearish Continuation Below Key Volume Zone
In our previous forecast, we anticipated a move into a key resistance zone followed by a bearish continuation—and the market respected that outlook.
Looking ahead:
- The overall bias remains bearish
- As long as the key volume zone holds, downside pressure is expected
- A liquidity sweep below recent lows is highly probable
Key Levels:
- Resistance: Volume zone (recent highs)
- Support targets:
- 1.14 (daily low liquidity)
- 1.11 – 1.10 (major downside targets)
Trading Plan:
We expect:
- Possible short-term consolidation or ABCD correction
- Followed by a continuation move to the downside
Strategy: Sell the rallies while price remains below the resistance zone.
GBP/USD Forecast – Weak Structure, Further Downside Expected
GBP/USD played out exactly as expected, with a pullback followed by continued downside movement.
However, the move is likely not finished yet.
Key Observations:
- Bearish structure remains intact
- Strong resistance defined by volume profile
- Market likely to retest or break recent lows
Key Levels:
- Resistance: Volume zone above current price
- Support targets:
- 1.3050 (retest zone)
- 1.3000 (psychological + structural level)
Trading Plan:
Any pullback into resistance should provide selling opportunities.
Strategy: Sell the rallies with downside continuation toward 1.30.
Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast – Sell the Rallies Continues
Gold followed the previous forecast with precision, breaking below the range and continuing lower.
The key question now: is the move over?
Market Outlook:
- Breakdown confirmed
- Bearish momentum still present
- Pullbacks are expected to be sold
Key Levels:
- Resistance: Previous range support (now resistance)
- Downside targets:
- 4000 zone
- 3500 (longer-term projection)
Trading Plan:
Every pullback should be viewed as a selling opportunity.
Strategy: Sell the rallies as long as bearish structure remains intact.
S&P 500 Forecast – Bearish Pressure Remains
The S&P 500 continues to show bearish momentum, aligning with our previous outlook.
Key Observations:
- First downside target already reached
- Further downside still likely
- Broken support may act as new resistance
Key Technical Factors:
- Retest of broken levels expected
- Long-term rising trendline remains a key magnet for price
Trading Plan:
The broader market sentiment remains risk-off.
Strategy: Continue to sell rallies while bearish momentum persists.
Pro Trading Tip
Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.
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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
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