Hello traders! I’m Vladimir Ribakov from the Home Trader Club, and I’m excited to present this week’s Forex Weekly Forecast for July 28 – August 1, 2025. As always, a big thanks to Eight Cap for supporting our trading community. With Eight Cap, you can enjoy exclusive access to the Home Trader Club, full access to all our trading tools, semi-automated systems, and even private mentoring sessions with me. Check out the link in the description below for more details.
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Let’s dive into the charts and explore this week’s trade setups for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold (XAU/USD).
EUR/USD Outlook
Two weeks ago, we outlined two potential scenarios for EUR/USD:
- Bearish Continuation: If the key supply zone holds, retracements should be treated as selling opportunities.
2. Bullish Breakout: If the supply is broken, we anticipated a final bullish push before a significant drop below 1.15.
As of now, our outlook remains unchanged. At the beginning of this week, we’re at a critical juncture where the market must decide whether to break down or continue upwards.
- Bearish Setup: If EUR/USD begins forming lower highs and lower lows, indicating renewed bearish momentum, and breaks below the volume profile zone, this would signal the beginning of a second leg down.
- Bullish Setup: Should price break above the supply zone, a further rally is expected until a bearish divergence forms.
Possibly within an ascending wedge pattern on the daily chart.
HTC Market Trend Snapshot:
- 24 Hours: Slightly negative
- 7 Days: +1%
- 30 Days: +1%
These stats suggest the bullish trend may be fading, or we are entering the final phase of the rally, both aligning with our current analysis.
GBP/USD Outlook
GBP/USD followed our expected path from two weeks ago by retesting the previous low. The question now is: what’s next?
- Similar to EUR/USD, GBP/USD appears to be in a corrective structure ahead of a potential long-term bullish trend.
- Short-Term Bearish Outlook: A pullback may occur, but we expect continued pressure to the downside until a new low is formed.
- Alternative Scenario: Price could develop a range or ABCD structure before the next downward move.
Key Resistance Zone: 1.3550–1.36, backed by strong weekly and daily Key Trading Level (KTL) indicator.
As long as this supply zone holds, the bearish bias remains. A confirmed break above it would open the door for long-term bullish rallies, but we aren’t there yet.
HTC Market Trend Snapshot:
- 24 Hours: Mild buyer activity
- 7 Days: Temporary rejection
- 30 Days: -1.4%
These readings support our bearish stance and suggest recent bullish activity is likely just a pullback.
USD/JPY Outlook
USD/JPY continues to behave within the expected weekly range:
- We are watching the 149.00–152.00 zone as a possible rally point before a downside reversal.
On the daily chart, price is trading in a corrective range after a three-wave move down, which supports a “sell-the-rally” strategy.
- Scenario 1: A push towards the top of the range (with possible false breakout) followed by bearish divergence and reversal.
- Scenario 2: A continued corrective rally toward weekly highs, presenting opportunities to short from key resistance zones.
HTC Market Trend Snapshot:
- 24 Hours: +0.48%
- 7 Days: Negative
- 30 Days: +2%
The monthly strength suggests buyers remain in control, but the overextension from typical ranges indicates rising pressure for a reversal, in line with our bearish setups.
Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook
In our previous session, we anticipated selling opportunities if Gold broke below its range. However, that breakdown never materialized, and price pushed higher.
That said, Gold remains overbought on higher timeframes:
- Weekly: Riding the upper Bollinger Band for over 20 candles
- This suggests significant bearish pressure is building despite recent bullish attempts.
On the Daily Chart:
- A potential zigzag pattern is forming: two waves down, then a range.
- A break below this range and volume profile zone could trigger a strong sell signal.
Key Signal:
- A confirmed break and close below the ascending support line and the volume profile zone (via our KTL indicator) would serve as a green light for selling.
Gold remains a high-probability candidate for “sell the rally” setups.
🔧 Pro Trading Tip
Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.
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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club
