Hi Traders! GBPCHF short term forecast follow up and update is here. On March 23rd I shared this “GBPCHF Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H4 chart, we could see that the price which was moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Currently, it looks like a correction has happened and the price which was moving higher reached a key resistance zone formed by the 61.8%(1.24008)Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave of the correction and the 61.8%(1.24155) Fibonacci retracement level of the bearish trend pattern. The price respected this key resistance zone and is currently bouncing lower from this zone. In addition to this, we had a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high that has formed at 1.24147 and the second high that has formed at 1.24192 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as another evidence of bearish pressure. So everything looks good here for the bears and until the key resistance zone holds my short term view remains bearish here.
GBPCHF H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
Based on the above-mentioned analysis, on the H4 chart, my short term view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the key resistance zone holds. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the bearish divergence, the price moved lower further and broke below the most recent uptrend line which we may consider as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view. We then had a pullback but the price was holding below the key resistance zone and then the price moved lower further delivering 250+ pips move so far!
(Note: You can learn about a Killer Forex Strategy “Double Trend Line Principle” here)
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action accordingly.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Traders Academy Club Team
