Hi Traders! GBPUSD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On April 9th 2025 I shared this “GBPUSD Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
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My Idea
On the H1 chart, we could see that currently we have a strong bearish momentum here as well. Also while measuring this strong bearish move we have two key resistance zones that has formed. The first key resistance zone is formed based on the 23.6%(1.28230) – 38.2%(1.28964) Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bearish move. The second key resistance zone is formed based on the 50%(1.29557) – 61.8%(1.30151) Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bearish move. Until both these key resistance zones shown in the image below (marked in red) holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
GBPUSD H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
In this pair based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bearish and until the two key resistance zones hold I was expecting the price to move lower further after pullbacks. The price action didn’t follow my analysis here and this idea failed. After the bearish trend pattern the price which was moving higher reached the second key resistance zone. The price then moved higher further and we got a valid breakout above this key resistance zone thus invalidating this short-term bearish view.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand why we should always trade based on the facts and hints provided by the market and take the right actions according to that. Even though we had various facts supporting the bearish view here, the price didn’t hold in the two key resistance zones as I expected it to and broke above them, which is a contradictory sign provided by the market opposing the bearish view. Also, you should keep in mind that losses are part of trading we can’t expect every trade to go as per our plan and provide us profits. In trading, we can’t avoid losses but in order to be successful in trading, we should know how to cut losses early and how to manage the trade when the price goes in the opposite direction.
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Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
