Hi Traders! NZDUSD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On May 18th I shared this “NZDUSD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, and lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then a further continuation lower. Currently, it looks like a correction is happening. Also, we had two strong support zones that have formed, the price moved lower broke below these zones and is holding below them, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Currently, these strong support zones are acting as strong resistance zones for us. Also, there are no signs opposing this short term bearish move at the moment. So the bottom line here is that all the evidences are favoring the bears here. Until the two strong resistance zones (marked in red) shown in the image below hold my short-term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
NZDUSD H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
In this pair until the two strong resistance zones hold I was expecting short term bearish moves to happen here. The price action moved exactly as I expected it to in my analysis. After the bearish trend pattern, we had a pullback with the price reaching the first strong resistance zone, respected it and then it bounced lower from this zone. The price then moved lower further and has delivered 320+ pips move to the downside as you can see in the image below!
On the H1 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. After the bearish trend pattern, we had a pullback and the price which was moving higher has created a false break of the last high at 0.62729. The price then moved lower and has broken below the most recent uptrend line, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view. Also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower after that and provided an excellent move to the downside.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bearish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at the majority of the time and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
