Hi Traders! SP500 short term forecast update and follow up is here. On December 18th, 2025 I shared this “Forex Market Analysis & Day Trading Opportunity | SP500 | 18 December 2025” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, we have a strong bearish momentum and also currently there are no signs opposing this short term bearish view. So everything looks good for the bears here as well. In addition to this, we have two key resistance zones that has formed based on the volume profile zones of the KTLI indicator and the Triple B Pro pivot levels. Until both these key resistance zones shown in the image below (marked in yellow) holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further after retraces.
SP500 H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
In SP500 based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bearish and until the two key resistance zones hold I was expecting the price to move lower further after pullbacks. The price action didn’t follow my analysis here and this idea failed. After the strong bearish move the price which was moving higher reached the second key resistance zone. The price then moved higher further and we got a valid breakout above this key resistance zone thus invalidating this short-term bearish view.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand why we should always trade based on the facts and hints provided by the market and take the right actions according to that. Even though we had various facts supporting the bearish view here, the price didn’t hold in the two key resistance zones as I expected it to and broke above them, which is a contradictory sign provided by the market opposing the bearish view. Also, you should keep in mind that losses are part of trading we can’t expect every trade to go as per our plan and provide us profits. In trading, we can’t avoid losses but in order to be successful in trading, we should know how to cut losses early and how to manage the trade when the price goes in the opposite direction.
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Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
