Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club with your weekly Forex forecast. A big thanks, as always, to Eight Cap broker for supporting our community. Thanks to them, our members enjoy exclusive access to Home Trader Club, advanced trading systems, mentoring sessions, and more.

This week, we’ll review the key markets: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, and Bitcoin — analyzing where they stand after last week’s events and outlining trading plans for the coming days.

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📌 Macro Overview

Last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) disappointed, highlighting weakness in the U.S. labor market. This leaves the Federal Reserve with little choice other than to consider rate cuts at the upcoming September 17th meeting. The big question now: Will the Fed cut once and stop, or will it signal a series of cuts for the remainder of 2025?

The answer will shape market sentiment across currencies, metals, and crypto in the coming weeks. Let’s dive into the charts.

🇪🇺 EUR/USD – Bullish Bias, but Beware of Traps

EUR/USD continues to trade at a critical juncture. Last week, we discussed two potential scenarios:

1. Breakout above the range → bullish continuation

1. False drop → followed by rally

That outlook remains valid. I still believe the euro is heading higher, with 1.19–1.20 as the next major zone, followed by 1.22–1.23.

🔑 Technical Outlook

• Bullish scenario:
  A daily close above the volume profile resistance, followed by a successful retest, would confirm momentum and open the path higher.

• Bearish trap scenario:
  If the Fed signals only one cut in September, the euro may zigzag lower — potentially breaking the lows and revisiting 1.14–1.13.

📊 Market Strength Snapshot (Home Trader Club)

• Monthly: Bullish (>1%)

• 7D & 24H: Flat, flirting with zero

This suggests buyers are pausing, preparing for the next push — or setting up a trap.

📈 Trading Plan: Watch for a confirmed breakout above resistance to join the bullish leg. If price rejects and flips lower, prepare for a deeper correction toward 1.14.

🟡 Gold (XAU/USD) – Overbought and Vulnerable

Gold recently broke out to new all-time highs, fueled by safe-haven demand. While this is exciting, we must be cautious:

🔑 Technical Outlook

• Monthly chart: Deeply overbought, trading above the upper Bollinger Band.

• Weekly chart: Bearish divergence forming (higher highs in price, lower highs on MACD).

• Daily chart: Approaching overbought conditions similar to April, which preceded a sharp decline.

This suggests current highs could turn into trap highs, luring in late buyers before a correction begins.

📈 Trading Plan: Expect possible false breakouts and failed rallies near the highs. Look for bearish divergence on daily/weekly charts as a signal to short. First targets lie at previous breakout levels.

💴 USD/JPY – Bearish Bias, Watch the Breakdown

USD/JPY we are going to face abcd correction or some prolonged range that means sell the rallies in both scenarios and that’s why I am more bearish to them than bullish in that case.

🔑 Technical Outlook

• Daily chart: Price consolidating around 146.20 key support.

• Bearish trigger: A breakdown below 146.20, with the price holding under the daily volume profile, would confirm weakness.

📊 Market Strength Snapshot:

• Monthly: Negative (~ -1%)

• 7D & 24H: Flat

This suggests pressure is building for a major move.

📈 Trading Plan: “Sell the rallies” bias remains. If price breaks below 146.20 and holds, target lower lows. Only a confirmed breakout above the range would invalidate this view.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Sell the Rallies

Bitcoin followed our forecast from previous weeks: false breakout, bearish divergence, and the first leg lower has already started.

🔑 Technical Outlook

• Broken supports are now turning into resistance.

• Key level to watch: 117,000 – if retested and rejected, it strengthens the bearish case.

• Downside targets:

  • 105,000 (immediate support)

  • 100,000 (psychological round number & historical demand zone).

📈 Trading Plan: Maintain bearish outlook. Look for rallies toward resistance zones as shorting opportunities.

📌 Summary & Trading Plans

• EUR/USD: Bullish above resistance; otherwise risk of correction to 1.14.

• Gold: Overbought; watch for false breakouts and reversal setups.

• USD/JPY: Bearish bias; breakdown below 146.20 opens downside.

• Bitcoin: Continue to “sell the rallies” with targets at 105K and 100K.

As always, risk management is key. Stay patient, let the market confirm, and trade with discipline.

🔧 Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club