Hi Traders! Ethereum short term forecast follow up and update is here. On April 2nd, 2024 I shared this “Ethereum Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H4 chart, based on the Heikin Ashi candles we can see that currently, we have strong bearish bodies in downward moving market conditions so it basically reflects a bearish environment. In addition to this, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bearish signal here at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25 which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Also, we had two strong support zones that has formed and the price which was moving lower has broken below these zones and is holding below them, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Currently, these strong support zones are acting as strong resistance zones for us. Until these two strong resistance zones (marked in red) shown in the image below hold my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
Ethereum H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
In Ethereum, on the H4 chart, based on the above mentioned analysis my short term view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further after pullbacks until the two strong resistance zones hold. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the bearish trend pattern, the pullback that I was looking for happened with the price reaching the first strong resistance zone, respected it and moved lower from this zone. The price then moved lower further as I expected it to and delivered a fantastic move to downside!
On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. The price which was moving higher created a bearish divergence between the first high formed at 3667.64 and the second high which formed at 3728.55 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved lower and created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows we may consider these as evidences of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect correction and then further continuation lower. We had a correction and then the price moved lower further and delivered a fantastic move to the downside!
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bearish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at the majority of the time and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
