Hi Traders! EURUSD short term forecast follow up and update is here. On October 1st 2024 I shared this “EURUSD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
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My Idea
On the H4 chart, the price which was moving higher created a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high that has formed on 17th September 2024 and the second high that has formed on 30th September 2024 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Also, the price which is moving lower has broken below the most recent uptrend line which we may consider as another evidence of bearish pressure. So everything looks good here as well for the bears and until the key resistance zone (marked in red) shown in the image below holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.
EURUSD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
In this pair based on the above mentioned analysis my short term view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the key resistance zone holds. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. On the H4 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. The price which was moving higher created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed on 17th September 2024 and the second high that has formed on 30th September 2024 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. The price then moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower further and provided around 750 pips move to the downside.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bearish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at the majority of the time and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.
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Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
