Hi Traders! US Dollar Index short term forecast update and follow up is here. On March 6th, 2025 I shared this “US Dollar Index Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the  Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

Explore My Free Mentorship Program

As an Internationally Certified Financial Technician (CFTe, IFTA) and former private capital hedge fund trader, I have successfully mentored numerous students who are now thriving in the trading world. Students who learned with me, are now full-time traders, work in the trading industry, run their own capital firms or are fully funded traders by private companies, develop automated trading solutions and manage others’ capitals. I am a very proud mentor and I am proud of the success stories I’ve helped create, and for a limited time, I’m offering my mentorship program for free through a partnership with Eight Cap broker. Join Eight Cap, become an active trader, and choose the offer that suits you best –

For more details, visit: Home Trader Club Mentorship Program

I’m excited to work with you and help you reach your desired level of success!

My Idea

Looking at the H4 chart, we could see that the price which is moving lower has created lower lows based on the MACD indicator, which is a sign of gaining momentum toward the bearish side. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bearish signal here at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25 which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Also, we had two strong support zones that has formed and the price which was moving lower has broken below these zones and is holding below them, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Currently, these strong support zones are acting as strong resistance zones for us. Until these two strong resistance zones (marked in red) shown in the image below hold my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.

US Dollar Index H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario

Based on the above-mentioned analysis, on the H4 chart, my short term view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the two strong resistance zones hold. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the bearish trend pattern, the pullback that I was looking for happened and then moved lower further as I expected it and delivered a nice move to downside!

We had facts supporting the bearish view on the H1 chart. After the bearish trend pattern, we had a flat correction in the form of a range and the price which was respecting this range moved lower and broke below the bottom of it. We may consider this as a hint provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there were no signs opposing this bearish view. The price then moved lower further and provided a nice move to the downside as you can see in the image below.

As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.

For similar trade ideas and much more I invite you to

Happy Trading!

Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.