The new trading week opens with high expectations and rising tension across the Forex market, as traders prepare for the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
While many market participants believe the Fed will not rush into a rate cut, price action suggests something very different. Markets are already behaving as if a cut — or at least a clear signal of aggressive easing — is inevitable.
This disconnect between policy expectations and market pricing is creating powerful technical structures across major currency pairs.
In this weekly forecast, we will focus on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/JPY, breaking down the technical outlook, key levels, and high-probability scenarios for the week ahead.
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EUR/USD – Bullish Structure, Final Expansion Phase?
Last week, we discussed the bullish divergence on EUR/USD and the potential for upside continuation. That scenario has played out well, with the pair gaining strong bullish momentum.
On the daily chart, EUR/USD is attempting to break out of its consolidation range. As long as recent highs remain intact, the structure favors continuation rather than reversal.
Key Levels to Watch
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1.2000 – First major upside objective
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1.2200 – Secondary resistance
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1.2400+ – Final expansion zone if momentum continues
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1.1575 – Key invalidation / structure support
On the 4-hour chart, previous resistance has now turned into support, and the last significant low acts as a clear demand zone, where buyers previously took control.
Trading Bias
✔ Bias: Bullish
✔ Strategy: Buy retracements, not breakouts
✔ Condition: Price must remain above 1.1575
As long as this level holds, pullbacks into support zones offer opportunities to align with the dominant trend.
GBP/USD – Strong Momentum With Room to Extend
GBP/USD continues to show impressive bullish strength, exceeding last week’s expectations and pushing higher without meaningful pullbacks so far.
Higher-Timeframe Perspective
On the weekly chart, GBP/USD appears to be in a strong bullish cycle, similar to EUR/USD, with room for further upside until momentum becomes exhausted.
Potential upside resistance zones include:
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1.4000
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1.4200
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1.4400
Lower-Timeframe Confirmation
On the 4-hour chart, the structure is very clean:
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Three-wave advance completed
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ABCD correction already resolved
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Trendline break confirmed
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Higher highs on both price and indicators
RSI has moved above 80, signaling short-term overbought conditions. While this does not mean an immediate reversal, it often leads to temporary retracements — which can be constructive in strong trends.
Trading Bias
✔ Bias: Bullish
✔ Strategy: Buy dips / retracements
✔ Focus Areas:
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Broken resistance acting as support
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Inner structure pullbacks
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Recent swing low as invalidation
As long as higher lows remain intact, GBP/USD has technical justification to continue toward 1.40 – 1.44 and potentially beyond.
EUR/JPY – Bearish Signals After Repeated Fake Breakouts
EUR/JPY presents a very different picture compared to the previous pairs.
The pair has completed two consecutive false breakouts above the 185 level, a classic warning sign of exhaustion.
Key Bearish Signals
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Two fake highs above major resistance
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Clear bearish divergence on MACD
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Strong bearish engulfing candle at the top
This combination suggests distribution rather than continuation.
What Confirms the Bearish Scenario?
The key condition is a break below the recent swing low:
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Lower lows on price
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Lower lows on MACD histogram
If this occurs, the market structure shifts decisively bearish.
Downside Targets
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180.00 – First objective
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178.00 – Previous structure level
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175.00 – Major support zone
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173.00 – Gap-fill area
Pro Trading Tip
Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.
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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club
