The latest Federal Reserve developments have shaken the currency and precious metals markets, bringing the U.S. dollar back into focus and forcing traders to reassess some of the major bullish scenarios that had been developing.

Could the Federal Reserve have disrupted the broader anti-dollar move? Is the recent weakness in EUR/USD and GBP/USD the beginning of a larger correction, or simply a short-term pullback before the bullish trends resume? And after its powerful rally, can Gold (XAU/USD) continue toward new highs?

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In this week’s Forex forecast, I examine the technical picture for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and Gold, highlighting the key support and resistance areas, volume-profile zones, market structure, and potential trading scenarios to watch heading into September.

Market note: This analysis presents potential scenarios based on current technical and fundamental conditions. It is not a guarantee of future price movements and should not be considered financial advice.

Federal Reserve Sends a Hawkish Signal to the Market

The latest Federal Reserve communication delivered a message that was hawkish without going as far as guaranteeing a rate hike at the September meeting.

The Fed continues to emphasize that inflation remains above its 2% target, while financial conditions are not considered sufficiently restrictive. At the same time, the U.S. economy and labor market remain relatively strong despite some recent uncertainty surrounding employment data.

This combination has provided fresh support for the U.S. dollar.

The market is now divided over what the Federal Reserve will ultimately do in September, but the immediate reaction has been clear: the dollar strengthened and several major markets moved lower.

The important question for traders is whether this represents the beginning of a major trend reversal or simply a correction within the existing larger trends.

For now, the technical picture suggests that it is too early to declare a major trend change.

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD has come under pressure following the recent dollar strength, but the key question is whether this decline represents a genuine bearish reversal or simply a deeper correction.

In the previous analysis, attention was drawn to the conditions around the upper Bollinger Band and the possibility of a downside move while key levels remained intact.

That scenario is now developing.

EUR/USD Short-Term Outlook

On the shorter time frame, the bias is currently pointing lower.

A significant volume-profile area around 1.1500 and slightly above it could become an important destination if the current bearish pressure continues.

The recent market structure is also important.

A previous high was broken, which makes the corresponding previous low a significant low of interest. That level is now being retested around the 1.1600 area.

If EUR/USD fails to recover strongly from this region, further downside toward 1.1500 and potentially below becomes possible.

Key EUR/USD Levels to Watch

The main areas to monitor include:

• 1.1600 area – current area of interest
• 1.1500 area – major volume-profile/support zone
• Below 1.1500 – potential extension of the correction
• September Fed decision – major fundamental catalyst

However, there is an important distinction to make.

The current dollar strength and hawkish Federal Reserve communication are not, by themselves, enough to confidently conclude that the long-term EUR/USD trend has completely changed.

Could EUR/USD Bounce?

Yes.

If EUR/USD reaches the lower support and volume-profile areas while becoming technically oversold, the pair could produce a meaningful rebound.

One potential scenario is therefore:

Short-term decline → test of 1.1500 area → oversold conditions → potential bullish reaction.

The pair could then remain range-bound between the major levels while traders wait for the September Federal Reserve decision.

For now, the key is to watch how price behaves when it reaches the major support zone rather than assuming that every bearish candle represents the beginning of a new long-term downtrend.

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast

GBP/USD is showing a similar short-term structure to EUR/USD.

The pair has already experienced a significant move lower after clearing the recent highs, raising the question of whether the bullish rally is finished.

The answer depends heavily on the time frame.

Long-Term GBP/USD Outlook

From a longer-term perspective, the outlook remains bullish for now.

The broader objective remains around 1.4000.

However, the short-term structure suggests that GBP/USD may need to move lower before another potential bullish phase develops.

A previously broken range creates an important area that could now be retested.

GBP/USD Support Zones

Several technical factors are converging below the current price.

These include:

• A rising supportive trend line

• A major volume-profile area below 1.3500
• Additional interest closer to 1.3400
• The interaction between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages

This creates an important technical area for traders to monitor.

The short-term scenario is therefore similar to EUR/USD:

Pullback → continuation toward key support → potential oversold conditions → possible bullish reaction.

Is the GBP/USD Rally Over?

It is too early to make that conclusion.

The current decline can still be interpreted as a correction within a broader bullish structure.

If GBP/USD reaches the major support area and begins showing signs of exhaustion, the pair could offer an interesting opportunity for a rebound.

For traders, the important point is not to chase the move simply because price is falling. Instead, monitor the reaction around the major support and volume-profile zones.

Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Forecast

Gold has experienced a massive rally and recently approached its previous daily high before turning lower.

The immediate price action is bearish, with lower highs and lower lows developing on the shorter time frame.

But does this mean that Gold has entered a new bearish trend?

At this stage, the answer is not necessarily.

There are currently no convincing trend-changing signals suggesting that the larger bullish structure has been completely invalidated.

Key Gold Support Levels

Several important technical zones stand out on the chart.

The main areas to watch are:

• $4,350–$4,300 – first major support zone
• Around $4,200 – secondary support
• $4,200–$4,150 – deeper support area

There is also a rising supportive trend line and a previously broken resistance level that could potentially act as support.

These confluences make the downside levels particularly important.

Gold Short-Term Scenario

The current structure contains lower highs and lower lows, meaning that additional downside remains possible.

Pullbacks could therefore continue pushing Gold toward the support zones mentioned above.

However, the broader picture remains different.

If Gold reaches these levels and begins showing oversold conditions, the decline could create a potential short-term buying opportunity.

The key distinction is:

Bearish short-term correction does not automatically equal a bearish long-term trend reversal.

For Gold traders, the reaction around the $4,350–$4,300 region and the deeper $4,200–$4,150 area could therefore be particularly important.

USD/CAD Weekly Forecast

USD/CAD presents a particularly interesting setup this week.

The pair has not been discussed as frequently in previous forecasts, but recent fundamental developments have created a scenario worth watching closely.

Negotiations between the United States and Canada broke down, bringing tariffs back into focus for September.

This development can influence the Canadian dollar and potentially provide additional support for USD/CAD in the short term.

USD/CAD Technical Outlook

The chart is showing a strong bounce from a rising supportive trend line.

The previous low around 1.3750 has also been cleared, adding importance to the current structure.

From a short-term perspective, this favors additional USD/CAD upside.

The key question is how far that move can develop.

Key USD/CAD Resistance Zones

The first major area to monitor is around:

1.4000

Above that, another important supply zone sits around:

1.4070–1.4130

The volume profile also shows significant activity above 1.4000, extending toward the 1.4100 area.

This creates a potentially important resistance and profit-taking zone.

if we go to the lower time frame you can see that the pair starts to build up some waves here which makes me think some pullbacks and further run should be delivered

As you can see on the volume profile area above 1.40 up to 1.41 we have massive levels as you can see this is our KTLI indicator this is a major zone so as long as the low hold pullbacks from my point of view should provide further move to the upside.

USD/CAD Short-Term Scenario

As long as the recent low holds, pullbacks could provide opportunities for another move higher.

The potential sequence is:

Support holds → pullback → continuation higher → test of 1.4000–1.4100+ → potential reversal.

However, the longer-term outlook is more cautious.

Once the pair reaches the major resistance and supply areas, the probability of a downside reaction increases.

Therefore, the current bullish USD/CAD move may be viewed as a short-term opportunity within a potentially larger bearish structure, rather than automatically assuming a permanent trend reversal.

What Traders Should Watch This Week

The four markets covered in this week’s forecast share an important theme.

The recent Federal Reserve communication has strengthened the U.S. dollar, but the technical charts do not yet provide enough evidence to confirm that the larger trends have completely reversed.

Instead, the current market may be entering a period of short-term corrections and key-level tests.

EUR/USD

Watch the 1.1600 area and especially the 1.1500 region. A move toward these levels could eventually create conditions for a rebound.

GBP/USD

Monitor the 1.3500–1.3400 support region, together with the rising trend line and moving-average confluence.

Gold

The $4,350–$4,300 zone is an important first area of interest, followed by $4,200–$4,150.

USD/CAD

The 1.4000–1.4100+ region is the major upside area to watch, while the recent support structure remains important for the short-term bullish scenario.

Is the Anti-Dollar Trend Really Over?

This is perhaps the biggest question coming out of the latest Federal Reserve developments.

The dollar has clearly regained strength, and that has pressured EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and Gold.

But declaring the end of the broader anti-dollar trend would be premature.

The current evidence points more toward a short-term correction and repricing of expectations than a confirmed long-term trend reversal.

September could therefore become a crucial month.

The upcoming Federal Reserve decision and accompanying economic data may provide the market with the additional information needed to determine whether the recent dollar strength is the beginning of something larger or simply another phase within the existing market structure.

Until then, traders should focus on price action around the major technical levels rather than attempting to predict the entire move in advance.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club