This week brings a heavy mix of macro fundamentals and technical decision points across Forex, Gold, and Crypto. Markets are entering a critical inflation zone, with high-impact events including:

• 🇯🇵 Japan Lower House Elections

• 🇺🇸 US Retail Sales

• 🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP – postponed)

• 🇺🇸 US CPI (Core & Headline – Monthly & Annual)

Inflation expectations remain a key driver. Current projections suggest further easing toward the 2.5% region, which theoretically supports US Dollar weakness. However, any surprise in CPI or NFP could trigger sharp volatility.

On top of this, markets remain sensitive to geopolitical risk (Middle East tensions) and speculative flows in metals, which continue to distort pure technical behavior.

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Let’s break down the technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold (XAUUSD), and Bitcoin.

EUR/USD – Breakout Continuation or Start of Correction?

Market Context:
EUR/USD has been relatively flat, consolidating after breaking out of its previous range. Price is now sitting in a critical decision zone, just ahead of major US data releases.

🔹 Bullish Scenario

As long as:

• The post-breakout low holds, and

• Price remains supported above the volume profile balance area and 200 MA,

The bias remains bullish, with potential for a final impulsive push higher. From a higher time frame perspective, completion of daily and weekly divergence structures opens the door for upside extensions toward the 1.22 – 1.24 region.

🔻 Bearish Scenario

If price develops two clear waves to the downside and breaks:

• The recent swing low, and

• The volume balance area + 200 MA,

Then the structure shifts into a corrective cycle, and the strategy changes toward selling rallies.

EUR/USD Bias:
➡️ Bullish while support holds. Shift to sell-rallies only after a confirmed two-wave breakdown.

GBP/USD – Retest Zone Before Continuation Higher?

Market Context:
The British Pound came under pressure following the Bank of England rate vote, with more members leaning toward future rate cuts. Despite the short-term weakness, the broader structure still points to unfinished upside potential.

🔹 Bullish Scenario

GBP/USD is currently retesting:

• The broken channel / range, and

• A key volume profile balance zone around 1.34 – 1.35.

As long as this zone holds, the pair remains technically positioned for continuation toward:

• 1.40+, and potentially

• A sweep of higher weekly liquidity zones.

On lower time frames, we might see the price developing here some sort of two waves and a rally,

Or it could simply hold the bottom and start climbing up by making new sequence of higher highs, higher lows. And then if the sequence of higher highs, higher lows, which refers to the buyer’s control, if that happens, that could be a good opportunity to look for buy-the-dips opportunities.

🔻 Bearish Scenario

If price breaks the current support with more than one wave down, the structure shifts into a corrective phase, favoring sell-the-rallies instead of dip buying.

GBP/USD Bias:
➡️ Buy-the-dips while 1.34–1.35 holds. Breakdown in two waves flips the bias bearish.

Gold (XAUUSD) – Overbought Conditions Point to Corrective Phase

Market Context:
Gold remains driven by speculative and geopolitical flows, and technical conditions are currently stretched. Price has spent extended time above the upper Bollinger Band without a meaningful mean reversion.

Technical Observations

• Weekly RSI: Deeply overbought (above 80)

• Daily RSI: Major overbought conditions

• Formation of three bearish soldiers on the daily chart

• Price failing to mean-revert to the Bollinger mid-band

This combination historically signals exhaustion and favors corrective behavior rather than trend continuation.

🔻 Tactical Outlook

Key supply zones are defined by:

• The recent range high, and

• The bearish engulfing / supply candle zone following the last impulse drop.

As long as these levels cap price, Gold is likely to develop:

• Either an ABCD correction, or

• A distribution range, before resuming downside continuation.

Gold Bias:
➡️ Sell the rallies while price remains capped below key supply zones. Expect corrective structure before continuation lower.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Bottoming Process Still Developing

Market Context:
Bitcoin experienced a sharp selloff, validating the broader bear market structure discussed in the annual outlook.

However, the market is now entering a potential bottoming phase.

Technical Structure

Current resistance factors:

• Broken support acting as resistance

• Last major high acting as supply

• Descending trendline from previous peaks

These combined levels create a strong confluence resistance zone, favoring continuation of sell-the-rallies behavior in the short term.

Forward Outlook

While BTC may still attempt:

• A liquidity sweep below 45,000,
  the broader structure suggests the bottom is forming. Once the market begins to print:

• Bullish divergence, and

• Clear reversal structures,

the focus will gradually shift toward strategic long positioning.

Bitcoin Bias:
➡️ Sell-the-rallies while below falling resistance. Watch for divergence and base formation to prepare for medium-term longs.

 Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club