Hi Traders! AUDCHF short term forecast follow up and update is here. On March 21st I shared this “AUDCHF Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, we could see that the price which was moving higher has created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 0.61876 and the second high that formed at 0.62485 based on the MACD indicator. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bearish signal here as well at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25 which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. In addition to this, currently, there are no signs opposing this short-term bearish view. So based on all this, until the strong resistance zone (marked in red) shown in the image below holds my short-term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.
AUDCHF H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
In AUDCHF, based on my technical analysis I mentioned that “until the strong resistance zone holds my short-term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further”. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. The price provided a first move to the downside and delivered 110+ pips move, we then had a pullback but most importantly the price was holding below the strong resistance zone. The price then provided a second move to the downside and delivered 300+ pips move!
On the H1 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. After the first move down, we had a pullback and the price which was moving higher created a false break of the last high at 0.61752. The price then moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view. Also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower after that and provided an excellent move to the downside.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bearish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us with the majority of the time and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
