Hi Traders! AUDJPY short term forecast update and follow up is here. On April 25th 2023 I shared this “AUDJPY Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, we should note that the price which was creating series of higher highs, higher lows structure so far in recent times has created lower lows for the first time which we may consider as a sign favoring the bears. In addition to this, we have this lower lows on the MACD indicator as well, which is a sign of gaining momentum towards the bearish side. Also, we have a good uptrend line that has formed and the price which was respecting this dynamic support so far has currently broken and is holding below it, we may consider this as another evidence of bearish pressure. Also, based on the Parabolic Sar we could see that the dots are above the price here as well which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. So everything looks good here for the bears here as well and until the two strong resistance zones (marked in red) shown in the image below hold my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.
AUDJPY H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
On the H1 chart, based on my technical analysis, I mentioned that “Until the two strong resistance zones (marked in red) shown in the image below hold my short-term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further”. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. We had a pullback with the price reaching the first strong resistance zone, respected it and then the price moved lower and delivered around 200 pips move to the downside until it was blocked by a bullish divergence.
We had facts supporting the bearish view on the M15 chart. After the strong bearish move, we had a flat correction in the form of a range and the price which was respecting this range moved lower and broke below the bottom of it. We may consider this as a hint provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there were no signs opposing this bearish view. We then had a pullback with the price respecting the bottom of the range and then the price moved lower further and provided a wonderful move to the downside as you can see in the image below.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bearish view here, and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected, you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us with the majority of the time, it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us, and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
