Hello traders, Vladimir here with your weekly Forex forecast and trade strategy for June 16–20, 2025, covering key opportunities in EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and Gold (XAUUSD). This week’s outlook is shaped by both technical momentum and significant geopolitical events unfolding in the Middle East.

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🔵 EUR/USD Forecast: Bullish Momentum with Bearish Signs Brewing

Last week, EUR/USD followed our expected scenario with a strong bullish rally. However, this week, the market opens in the shadow of rising Middle East tensions, which could inject volatility and non-technical price behavior.

📈 Current Market Outlook:

• The euro remains in a bullish momentum, with short-term pullbacks.

• Support Zone: 1.15–1.17

• Resistance/Target Zone: 1.17–1.19, where previous sellers took control

📉 Bearish Reversal Ahead?

A potential bearish divergence is building.

Two key scenarios may unfold:

1. False Breakout + Bearish Divergence → Price peaks near 1.18 and begins reversal to below 1.15, possibly toward 1.13.

2. Gradual Lower Highs and Lower Lows → Structure begins to shift bearish, offering a swing-trading opportunity to the downside.

📊 Trend Snapshot (Home Trader Club Tool):

• 1-Month: ✅ Bullish

• 7-Day: ✅ Bullish

• 24-Hour: ❌ Bearish
  ➡️ Expect pullbacks before potential continuation or reversal confirmation.

🔵 GBP/USD Forecast: Final Climb Before the Drop?

The GBP/USD is approaching a historical resistance zone between 1.36–1.40, flirting with long-term highs. Following our forecast last week, it’s now likely entering peak formation territory.

🔺 Bullish Continuation Possible:

• Short-term rallies may persist with slow upward grind

• Potential for a final fake high, testing long-term trendlines

🔻 Reversal Setup in Progress:

• Divergence forming on the daily chart

• Two likely patterns:

  1.  Final Push ➝ False Breakout ➝ Trendline Break ➝ Drop to 1.35–1.32

📊 Trend Snapshot:

• 1-Month: ✅ +2.0%

• 7-Day: ✅ +0.4%

• 24-Hour: ❌ Negative
  ➡️ Momentum is slowing, hinting that a top is near.

🔵 USD/JPY Forecast: Breakout from Triangle Imminent

The USD/JPY continues to consolidate in a triangle formation, as forecasted last week. The pair is preparing for a technical breakout, likely to the downside unless geopolitical uncertainty fuels unexpected rallies.

🔽 Primary Scenario:

• A clean break below the triangle confirms a move toward 1.40 → 1.35

• Any retrace post-breakout becomes a sell opportunity

🔼 Alternative Risk Scenario:

• A final rally may occur, pushing toward 1.45–1.47

• Watch for divergence near this zone as confirmation for reversal

📊 Trend Snapshot:

• 1-Month: ❌ Bearish

• 7-Day & 24-Hour: ✅ Corrective
  ➡️ Suggests pullbacks are in place before continuation lower

🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD) Forecast: Still Bullish — But for How Long?

Gold remains in a sensitive bullish phase, driven by instability in the Middle East. But it’s also facing historically overbought conditions on higher timeframes.

📉 Long-Term Risk:

• Monthly and weekly charts show extreme overbought conditions

• Once peace or stability returns, expect a strong reversal and a drop below $3,000

📈 Short-Term View:

• Rallies may continue in the short term while war tensions escalate

• Price action is forming false highs and bearish divergences on lower timeframe

💡 Watch for a daily structure breakdown:

• Bearish divergence

• False breakout

• Breakdown of short-term trendlines

📊 Trend Snapshot:

• Momentum remains bullish

• Expect peak formation soon as technicals clash with fundamentals

🔧 Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club

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