Hi Traders! GBPCHF forecast follow up and update is here. On April 27th I shared this “GBPCHF Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
On the H1 chart, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Currently it looks like a correction is happening and in addition to this, we have a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high that has formed on 26th April 2021 and the second high that has formed on 27th April 2021 based on the MACD indicator, we may consider this as evidence of bearish pressure. Also, based on the Parabolic Sar we could see that the dots are above the price here as well which we may consider as another evidence of bearish pressure. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bearish signal here as well at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25 which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Until the strong resistance zone (marked in blue) shown in the image below holds my view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.
GBPCHF H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
On the H1 chart my view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the strong resistance zone holds. After the bearish trend pattern, we had a pullback, and the price which was moving higher reached the strong resistance zone, respected it and bounced lower from this zone. The price then moved lower further as I expected it to and delivered around 150 pips move before the price moved higher.
On the M15 chart the price provided us with facts supporting the bearish view. After the bearish trend pattern, the H1 chart correction happened in the form of a triangle pattern on the M15 chart. The price which was moving inside this pattern broke below the bottom of it, which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. We then had a pullback but the price was holding below the top of this triangle pattern and then it moved lower further and provided a fantastic move to the downside as you can see in the image below.
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted us and took the right action according to that.
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