Hi Traders! Gold forecast update and follow up is here. On March 23rd I shared this “Gold Technical Analysis And Forecast” post in my blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea:
On the H4 chart, we had a strong support zone that has formed and the price which is moving lower has broken below this zone and is holding below it. Currently, this strong support zone is acting as a strong resistance zone for us. Until this strong resistance zone holds my view remains bearish here and I expect the price to continue lower further. Currently, it looks like the daily correction is happening in the form of double wave to the upside on the H4 chart. In addition to this, we have a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high that has formed on 11th March 2021 and the second high that has formed on 18th March 2021 based on the MACD indicator, we may consider this as evidence of bearish pressure. There are two possible scenarios from here which are as follows:
Scenario 1: If the price moves lower from the current zone and if we get a valid breakout below the low at 1719.21, we may then consider it as evidence of bearish pressure and may expect the price to move lower further.
Scenario 2: Alternatively if the price moves higher then the price might provide one more push higher towards the strong resistance zone and then we may look for bearish setups with bearish evidences from this zone.
Gold H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
In Gold my view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower as per the two possible scenarios mentioned above. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to and moved as per scenario 1. The price moved lower and broke below the low at 1719.21 which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure and then it moved lower further providing an amazing move to the downside so far.
On the M15 chart after the breakout of the low at 1719.21 we had a small pullback with the price creating a bearish hidden divergence between the first high at 1728.08 and the second high at 1715.47 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as a fact provided by the market supporting the bearish view. Also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower after that and provided an amazing move to the downside.
So traders when it comes to trading, there are various important factors that we need to pay attention to, just because we have a good setup doesn’t mean that we can enter the trade randomly and it will pay us huge profits. First of all, we need to validate the entry and we should have a perfect entry plan to get into the trade which is a key factor when it comes to trading. This Gold forecast is yet another good example of this scenario.
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Happy Trading!
Yordan Kuzmanov
Chief Trader at the Traders Academy Club
