Hi Traders! NZDUSD short term forecast follow up and update is here. On October 1st, 2025 I shared this “NZDUSD Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

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My Idea

On the H4 chart, we could see that currently we have a strong bearish momentum here as well. Also while measuring this strong bearish move we have two key resistance zones that has formed. The first key resistance zone is formed based on the 23.6%(0.58133) – 38.2%(0.58502) Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bearish move. The second key resistance zone is formed based on the 50%(0.58801) – 61.8%(0.59100) Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bearish move. Until both these key resistance zones shown in the image below (marked in red) holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.

NZDUSD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario

Based on the above-mentioned analysis my short term view was bearish here and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the two key resistance zones hold. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. The price which was moving higher reached the first resistance zone, respected it and moved lower from this zone and delivered a fantastic move to the downside as you can see in the image below!

On the H1 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. The price which was moving higher created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 0.58423 and the second high that has formed at 0.58441 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. The price then moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower further and provided a fantastic move to the downside.

As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.

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Happy Trading!

Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.