Trade with AvaTrade and Unlock Unlimited Home Trader Club Access

We have partnered with AvaTrade, one of the industry’s leading regulated brokers.

When you open and trade with AvaTrade through our partnership, you receive:

• Unlimited access to Home Trader Club
• Real-time trading education
• Daily and swing trading opportunities
• Our complete educational library
• Access to our Trade Copier Project
• Members-only trading community

If you’re looking to accelerate your trading journey while enjoying premium education, this partnership gives you everything you need under one roof.

If you already have account with them, still follow this link to open separate account with separate email. Once you did that, contact me with the telegram link below and we will give you the access.

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD remains under pressure, but the pair is approaching an area where traders need to be extremely careful.

On the daily chart, price has repeatedly interacted with the Bollinger Band after the latest break. The pair has now experienced multiple interactions with the band while the RSI is around 20 and below 20, indicating extremely weak momentum.

This is an important warning.

An RSI reading around these levels can signal that the market is approaching an area where selling pressure may begin to slow.

However, oversold does not automatically mean buy.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

EUR/USD remains within a broader declining structure, and there is still room for the pair to move lower.

At the same time, price is approaching an important technical area where a correction or reversal could develop.

The market is therefore caught between two forces:

• Continued bearish pressure
• Increasingly oversold conditions

On the higher timeframe, EUR/USD is approaching a retest of a previously broken resistance line.

That broken resistance area can become important support/resistance territory and may act as a potential reaction zone.

EUR/USD Trading Scenario

The broader pressure remains bearish.

On the 4-hour chart, there are currently no convincing reversal signals. Therefore, the preferred short-term approach remains:

Look for selling opportunities at resistance/highs rather than chasing the market lower.

Previous support levels that have been broken can now act as resistance.

These areas become particularly important if price rallies into them and begins to show bearish rejection.

However, traders should monitor momentum closely.

If EUR/USD begins forming a bullish divergence—where price makes a lower low while an indicator such as MACD or RSI forms a higher low—it could signal that a deeper corrective move is developing before the next potential decline.

EUR/USD Key Takeaway

The primary scenario remains:

Sell rallies while bearish structure remains intact.

But because price is approaching major technical support and the market is deeply oversold, traders should avoid entering short positions after an extended decline without confirmation.

EUR/GBP Weekly Forecast

EUR/GBP continues to develop within a bearish structure.

The current trend remains downward, and the market has been respecting important technical levels following the break of a previous swing area.

The key question now is whether the pair can continue declining directly or whether it needs a corrective pullback first.

The technical picture suggests that a pullback could provide the better opportunity.

EUR/GBP Resistance and Pullback Scenario

After breaking a previous support area, that level can become resistance during a retest.

This is the type of structure we want to watch:

Break → Pullback → Resistance → Bearish reaction → Continuation

The pair has also spent an extended period moving along the Bollinger Band, which can indicate that the current bearish move is becoming stretched in the short term.

Therefore, instead of chasing the decline, traders should watch for a retracement toward previous support-turned-resistance.

EUR/GBP Trading Plan

The preferred scenario remains selling rallies.

If price retraces into the identified resistance zone and produces bearish confirmation, sellers may regain control.

The broader bearish structure remains valid until the market provides evidence of a meaningful reversal.

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast

USD/JPY is one of the most interesting setups in this week’s forecast.

The pair remains around an important technical area, with the broader wave structure suggesting that sellers could become increasingly active around the 158–161 zone.

This region is therefore one of the most important areas to monitor.

USD/JPY Key Resistance Zone: 158–161

The 158–161 area is viewed as a major zone where selling opportunities could accumulate.

Rather than entering immediately, the preferred approach is to wait for price to reach the area and then look for confirmation on the lower timeframe.

On the 4-hour chart, traders can monitor whether price develops a corrective two-wave structure followed by bearish rejection.

The key idea is simple:

Let price come to resistance. Then wait for the market to show that sellers are returning.

USD/JPY Bearish Targets

If the bearish scenario develops and price begins moving lower, the forecast identifies several downside levels.

The initial area to watch is around:

• 153
• 152
• 150

These levels can become potential downside objectives if the bearish structure confirms.

The critical invalidation point is the resistance structure around the 158–161 region.

As long as that area holds, the bearish scenario remains attractive.

Gold Weekly Forecast

Gold remains one of the most interesting markets following the latest U.S. employment data.

The broader trend is still considered bearish in the longer term, but the short-term picture is becoming increasingly interesting for buyers.

The combination of weak U.S. employment data, potential monetary easing expectations and important technical support could provide the ingredients for a short-term gold rebound.

Gold: Short-Term Bullish Scenario

On the 4-hour chart, the market is approaching important support areas.

The price action is also showing characteristics that could develop into bullish divergence.

If price makes a lower low while momentum indicators fail to confirm that weakness, it could indicate that sellers are losing control.

This is exactly the type of confirmation traders should watch.

A successful bullish reversal could open the door toward:

• 4,252
• 4,300
• Potentially 4,500

These are short-term upside areas mentioned in the forecast.

But Is Gold Turning Bullish Long Term?

Not necessarily.

This is an important distinction.

The short-term setup may favor a bullish correction, while the longer-term analysis remains bearish.

The broader expectation is still that gold could eventually retest lower levels, potentially around:

• 3,900
• 3,500

Therefore, traders should distinguish between a short-term bullish correction and a long-term trend reversal.

Gold Trading Strategy

The preferred approach is to wait for price to reach support and then monitor the lower timeframe for confirmation.

A potential bullish sequence would be:

Support → Lower low/false break → Bullish divergence → Reversal → Upside continuation

If the confirmation appears, the short-term bullish scenario becomes increasingly attractive.

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast

Bitcoin remains at an important decision point.

The forecast continues to focus on a potential corrective structure involving false breakouts and failed attempts to move higher.

The first scenario involves price completing a series of false penetrations before producing a larger reversal.

For example:

False high → False high → Larger rejection → Trendline break

Such a structure could provide an important confirmation that sellers are beginning to take control.

Bitcoin Bullish Scenario

There is also another possibility.

Bitcoin could develop a sequence of two downward waves followed by two upward waves, accompanied by a breakout and penetration of the relevant structure.

If that scenario develops successfully, then it could be a trigger for the price to start it’s way back to the 75,000 area.

The forecast identifies the 85,000–90,000 area as an important current region.

From there, Bitcoin could potentially move toward:

• 95,000
• 100,000

The forecast considers this upper region an area where Bitcoin could potentially complete its larger move and begin a corrective decline.

Bitcoin: Watch the Reaction, Not Just the Level

The most important lesson here is not to trade a number blindly.

A resistance level alone does not tell us whether Bitcoin will reverse.

What matters is how price behaves when it reaches the level.

A false breakout, rejection, momentum divergence or trendline break can provide the confirmation needed to determine whether sellers are actually stepping in.

Weekly Market Outlook: What Traders Should Watch

The latest employment report has changed the fundamental backdrop.

The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, while inflation remains an issue.

This creates a complicated environment for the Federal Reserve—but it also creates several interesting technical setups.

Here are the major themes for the week:

EUR/USD

Bearish pressure remains, but the pair is approaching major support and deeply oversold conditions.

Preferred scenario: Sell rallies with confirmation.

EUR/GBP

The broader structure remains bearish, with potential for a corrective pullback before another decline.

Preferred scenario: Sell retracements into resistance.

USD/JPY

The 158–161 area is the major zone to watch.

Preferred scenario: Look for bearish confirmation around resistance.

Gold

Short-term bullish reversal potential is increasing around major support, particularly with weak U.S. employment data.

Preferred scenario: Watch for bullish divergence and confirmation.

Bitcoin

The market remains at an important decision point, with potential for either another move higher or a larger corrective decline.

Preferred scenario: Wait for confirmation around the key structural levels.

The Bigger Picture for Forex Traders

One of the most important messages from this week’s analysis is that fundamental and technical analysis should work together.

The weak employment report provides a fundamental reason to monitor dollar weakness.

But fundamentals alone do not tell us exactly where to enter a trade.

Technical analysis helps identify the location.

Price action provides the confirmation.

And risk management determines how much capital should be exposed.

This is why traders should avoid reacting emotionally to headlines.

Instead, ask three questions:

1. What is the broader trend?
2. Where is the important technical level?
3. What price action would confirm my scenario?

This approach can help traders avoid chasing extended moves and instead wait for higher-quality setups.

Final Thoughts

The October 5–9 market outlook presents an interesting combination of weakening U.S. employment data and technically important market levels.

The dollar could remain under pressure if the labor-market weakness continues to influence expectations for monetary easing.

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP remain technically bearish, although both markets are approaching areas where corrective rebounds could develop.

USD/JPY offers an important resistance zone around 158–161, where bearish confirmation could provide an opportunity.

Gold is particularly interesting because the short-term technical picture may be preparing for a bullish move, while the longer-term outlook remains cautious.

Bitcoin is approaching an equally important decision point, with the potential for another move higher before a larger correction.

As always, the key is not simply predicting what the market will do.

The goal is to identify the important levels, wait for confirmation and manage risk when the opportunity appears.

Trade the setup—not the emotion.

 Join the Home Trader Club

Want to access the tools, systems, and real-time education we use daily?
With AvaTrade Broker’s support, you can now enjoy up to one full year of access to the Home Trader Club — including:

• All professional trading systems

• Access to our new project, the Home Trader Club trade copier, where our traders trade and you can copy.

• Real-time trade ideas and setups

• Full access to our course library and trading marketplace

 Join here: https://tracking.avapartner.com/dR0AAA

Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club

Risk Disclaimer

Trading Forex, CFDs, cryptocurrencies, Gold and other financial instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for every trader. Technical analysis and market forecasts represent opinions and scenarios, not guarantees of future performance. Always conduct your own analysis, use appropriate risk management and never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.