Hi Traders! Arvinth here from Traders Academy Club team. Weekly summary and review August 5th 2022 is here. It is now time to recap and summarize the trade setups that we had during this week. Below you will find the short explanation of all the trade setups we had this week and how it has currently developed now.

Trading Ideas (Blog Posts)

EURUSD – My idea here was “On the H4 chart, we could see that the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows we may consider this as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Currently, it looks like the correction that we were looking for is happening in the form of potential double wave to the upside. In addition to this, we had a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high that has formed at 1.02691 and the second high that has formed at 1.02937 based on the MACD indicator, we may consider this as other evidence of bearish pressure. Also, while measuring this bearish trend pattern using the Fibonacci retracement tool we have two key resistance zones that has formed. The first key resistance zone is formed by the 38.2%(1.02052), 50%(1.02833) Fibonacci retracement zones of the bearish trend pattern and the 61.8%(1.02978) Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave of the correction. The second key resistance zone is formed by the 61.8%(1.03615) Fibonacci retracement zone of the bearish trend pattern and the 100%(1.04223)Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave of the correction. Until these two key resistance zones hold my short term view remains bearish here and if we get a valid breakout below the most recent uptrend line we may then consider it as a validation for this bearish view”.

Current Scenario – In this pair, my short term view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the two key resistance zones hold. Also, I mentioned that “if we get a valid breakout below the most recent uptrend line we may then consider it as a validation for this bearish view”. The validation for the bearish view which is a valid breakout below the most recent uptrend line happened as per the plan. We then had a pullback and then the price which is moving lower has delivered 110+ pips move so far.

You can see this move clearly on the H1 chart below.

EURCHF – My idea here was “On the H1 chart, the price which was moving lower created a bullish divergence which has formed between the first low at 0.97097 and the second low at 0.96992 based on the MACD indicator. In addition to this, we have this bullish divergence on the CCI indicator as well, which we may consider as another evidence of bullish pressure. The price then moved higher and broke above the last high at 0.97634 thus creating higher highs. Also, we should note that the price which was in a bearish trend so far creating series of lower highs, lower lows has created higher highs for the first time in a while which we may consider as sign of a possible trend change. We may consider these as evidences of bullish pressure. Until the strong support zone (marked in blue) shown in the image below holds my short term view remains bullish here. If we get a valid breakout above the high at 0.98050 we may then consider it as a validation for this bullish view”.

Current Scenario – The validation for this bullish view which is a valid breakout above the high at 0.98050 didn’t happen yet. My plan still remains the same here.

GBPJPY – My idea here was “Looking at the H1 chart, we could see that, we have a key resistance zone that has formed based on the 61.8%(163.698) Fibonacci retracement level of the strong bearish move and the 100%(164.423)Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave of the correction. The price which was moving higher has reached this zone, respected it and is bouncing lower from this zone. In addition to this, we had a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high that has formed at 162.681 and the second high that has formed at 163.952 based on the MACD indicator, we may consider this as evidence of bearish pressure. Also, currently there are no signs opposing this short term bearish view. So based on all this, until the key resistance zone holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further”.

Current Scenario – In GBPJPY based on the above-mentioned analysis my short term view was bearish here and I expected the price to move lower further. The price action followed my analysis and moved lower further and delivered 150+ pips move before it moved higher.
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