Hi Traders! AUDNZD forecast follow up and update is here. On September 1st I shared this AUDNZD Technical Analysis And Forecast post in my blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
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Now let’s summarize the idea first:
On the H4 chart, we had a good uptrend line that has formed and the price which is moving lower has currently broken below this dynamic support which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. In addition to this, we have an uptrend line breakout based on the CCI indicator as well, and also based on the Parabolic Sar the dot is above the price we may consider these as other evidences of bearish pressure. If the price moves lower and if we get a valid breakout below the low at 1.08973 we may then consider it as a validation for the short term bearish view and then we may expect the price to continue lower further. Alternatively, if the price moves higher and provides a valid breakout above the most recent downtrend line (marked in blue) shown in the screenshot below then this short term bearish view will be invalidated.
AUDNZD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
On the H4 chart, the validation for the short term bearish view which is a valid breakout below the low at 1.08973 happened and then the price moved lower exactly as I expected it to. The market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view here. First of all the invalidation for this bearish view which is the most recent downtrend line was holding. In addition to this, we also had a double wave correction followed by the most recent uptrend line breakout (you can see this clearly on the H1 chart) which we may consider as evidence provided by the market supporting the bearish view. We also had a bearish hidden divergence between the first high that has formed at 1.09586 and the second high that has formed at 1.09989 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as another evidence provided by the market supporting the bearish view. The price then moved lower and delivered around 80 pips move before it moved higher again.
(Note: You can learn about a Killer Forex Strategy “Double Trend Line Principle” here)
You can see this move clearly on the H1 chart below
So traders when it comes to trading, there are various important factors that we need to pay attention to, just because we have a good setup doesn’t mean that we can enter the trade randomly and it will pay us huge profits. First of all, we need to validate the entry and we should have a perfect entry plan to get into the trade which is a key factor when it comes to trading. This AUDNZD forecast is a perfect example of this scenario.
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To your success,
Vladimir Ribakov
Certified Financial Technician
