Hi Traders! AUDUSD short term forecast follow up and update is here. On April 19th I shared this “AUDUSD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, we could see that the price which was moving lower created a bullish divergence that has formed between the first low that has formed at 0.73508 and the second low that has formed at 0.73423 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the last high at 0.73779 creating higher highs, thus forming a classical setup of bullish divergence followed by bullish convergence. Hence as per the book scenario, after a bullish convergence, we may look for corrections to happen and then further continuation to the upside. Currently it looks like a correction is happening. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bullish signal here as well at the cross of +DI (green line) versus -DI (red line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bullish pressure. Until the H4 key support zone holds my short term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further.
AUDUSD H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
On the H1 chart, based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bullish here and I was expecting the price to move higher further. After the bullish convergence, we had a pullback with the price reaching the key support zone again. The price respected this zone and then it moved higher further as I expected it to and delivered 100+ pips move to the upside as you can see in the image below.
On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. After the bullish convergence on the H1 chart, the price which was moving lower on the M15 chart created a bullish hidden divergence between the first low that has formed at 0.73423 and the second low that has formed at 0.73504 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as a fact provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Also, in addition to this, there were no signs opposing this short term bullish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved higher after that and provided a nice move to the upside.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bullish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at majority of the times and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Traders Academy Club Team.
