Hi Traders! CADJPY forecast follow up and update is here. On January 19th I shared this “CADJPY Technical Analysis And Forecast” post in my blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea:
On the H4 chart, the price has created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed on 10th December 2020 and the second high that has formed on 14th January 2021 based on the MACD indicator. Then the price moved lower and broke below the low at 81.230 creating lower lows, thus forming a classical setup of bearish divergence followed by bearish convergence. Hence as per the book scenario, after a bearish convergence, we may look for corrections to happen and then further continuation to the downside. Currently, it looks like the correction that we were looking for is happening. In addition to this based on the Stochastic Oscillator, we could see that the price has reached its extreme which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Until the top of the daily range holds my view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.
CADJPY H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
Based on the above-mentioned analysis my view was bearish here and I was expecting the price to move lower until the top of the daily range holds. On the H4 chart, the price moved higher, reached the top of the daily range, respected it, and bounced lower from this zone. We also had a bearish divergence that had formed between the first high that has formed on 14th January 2021 and the second high that has formed on 21st January 2021 based on the MACD indicator. Also, on the H1 chart we had the most recent uptrend line breakout, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view. The price then moved lower further providing 100+ pips move so far.
(Note: You can learn about a Killer Forex Strategy “Double Trend Line Principle” here)
CADJPY H1(1 Hour) Chart
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted us and took the right action according to that.
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To your success,
Vladimir Ribakov
Certified Financial Technician
