Hi Traders! GBPCAD forecast update and follow up is here. On May 25th I shared this “GBPCAD Technical Analysis And Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H4 chart we have a bullish divergence that has formed between the first low that has formed at 1.69579 and the second low that has formed at 1.68708 based on the MACD indicator. Then the price moved higher and broke above the high at 1.71300 creating higher highs, thus forming a classical setup of bullish divergence followed by bullish convergence. Hence as per the book scenario, after a bullish convergence, we may look for corrections to happen and then further continuation to the upside. Currently it looks like a flat correction is happening in the form of a range. The price which is moving inside this range is currently nearing the bottom of it. Until the bottom of this range holds, my view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further.
GBPCAD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
Based on the above-mentioned analysis my view was bullish here and I was expecting the price to move higher further until the bottom of the range holds. The price action followed my analysis here exactly as I expected it to. The price respected the bottom of the range and bounced higher from this zone, delivering 130+ pips move until it reached the top of the range and moved lower again.
On the H1 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. The price which was moving lower created a bullish divergence between the first low that has formed at 1.70306 and the second low that has formed at 1.70275 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the most recent downtrend line, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved higher after that.
(Note: You can learn about a Killer Forex Strategy “Double Trend Line Principle” here)
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bullish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at majority of the times and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions.
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To your success,
Vladimir Ribakov
Certified Financial Technician
