Hi Traders! GBPUSD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On April 23rd I shared this “GBPUSD Short Term Forecast” in Trading View. In this post lets do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
H4 – Bullish trend pattern, correction is happening currently. Price still has room lower towards the important support zone.
H1 – Bearish trend pattern, correction is happening currently.
Until the invalidation level at 1.24906 holds, I expect further continuation to the downside.
GBPUSD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
In this pair, the price didn’t move as per my analysis. I was expecting the price to move lower but alternatively, it moved higher and this idea failed. On the H4 chart after the bullish trend pattern, we had the first leg down. I was expecting an ABCD correction to happen and the price to break below the most recent uptrend line and continue lower further towards the important support zone. But the price didn’t break below the most recent uptrend line as expected and alternatively, it moved higher.
GBPUSD H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
While looking at the H1 chart we could see that after the bearish trend pattern it looked like a correction was happening in the form of an ABCD pattern. But instead of breaking below the uptrend line after the ABCD pattern, the price moved higher and created one more high forming a bullish trend pattern followed by a double wave correction. In addition to this, the price then broke above the most recent downtrend line and moved higher after that, which changed the momentum immediately. This is a warning sign for us from the market and it clearly hints us that the bearish momentum is not here so this invalidated my short term bearish view.
Note: If you want to learn about how to trade efficiently using trend lines you can check my “Double Trend Line Principle Strategy here“
This is a perfect example of why we should listen to the market and trade only the facts. When the facts don’t happen as we expected then the market simply tells us that the momentum that we are looking for is not here. So, always in such cases, step back and analyze again maybe we might have missed something. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at majority of the times. And it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions.
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To your success,
Vladimir Ribakov
Certified Financial Technician
