Hi Traders! Arvinth here from the Home Trader Club team. The weekly summary and, review of January 19th 2024 is here. It is now time to recap and summarize the trade setups that we had during this week. Below you will find a short explanation of all the trade setups we had this week and how it has currently developed now.

Trading Ideas (Blog Posts)

USDJPY – My idea here was “On the H4 chart, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then a further continuation lower. Currently, it looks like a correction is happening. Also, we have a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high which formed at 145.970 and the second high which formed at 146.742 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. In addition to this, based on the Stochastic Oscillator we could see that the price has reached its extreme here which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Also, while measuring the big and small wave of the correction, we have two key resistance zones that has formed. The first key resistance zone is formed by the 61.8%(146.952) Fibonacci expansion level of the big wave and the 100%(147.340) Fibonacci expansion level of the small wave. The second key resistance zone is formed by the 100%(149.139) Fibonacci expansion level of the big wave and the 161.8%(149.190) Fibonacci expansion level of the small wave Until these two key resistance zones (marked in red) shown in the image below hold, my short-term view remains bearish here and a valid breakout below the most recent uptrend line would be the validation for this short-term bearish view”.

Current Scenario – In USDJPY, the price is currently holding in the second strong resistance zone. Until this zone holds my short term bearish view still remains the same here and a valid breakout below the most recent uptrend line would be the validation for this short-term bearish view. Alternatively, if the price breaks and holds above the second strong resistance zone then this bearish view will be invalidated.

AUDUSD – My idea here was “On the H4 chart, currently, we have a strong bearish momentum and the price which is moving lower has broken below a strong support zone and is holding below it, we may consider this as evidence of bearish pressure. After the breakout, this strong support zone is acting as a strong resistance zone for us. Also, based on the Heikin Ashi candles we can see that currently, we have strong bearish bodies in downward-moving market conditions so it basically reflects a bearish environment. In addition to this, the price has also created lower lows based on the MACD indicator, which is another sign of gaining momentum toward the bearish side. Also, the ADX indicator gave a bearish signal here at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25 which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. So the bottom line here is that, everything looks good here for the bears and I expect the price to move lower further in the short term after pullbacks until the strong resistance zone (marked in red) shown in the image below holds”.

Current Scenario – In AUDUSD, the price action is following the bearish expectations so far. My plan still remains the same here, that is, I expect the price to move lower further in the short term after pullbacks until the strong resistance zone (marked in red) shown in the image below holds.

AUDCHF – My idea here was “On the H4 chart, currently, we have a strong bearish momentum and the price which is moving lower has broken below a strong support zone and is holding below it, we may consider this as evidence of bearish pressure. After the breakout, this strong support zone is acting as a strong resistance zone for us. Also, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Currently it looks like a correction is happening. Also, based on the Heikin Ashi candles we can see that currently, we have strong bearish bodies in downward moving market conditions so it basically reflects a bearish environment. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bearish signal here at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25 which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. So the bottom line here is that, everything looks good here for the bears and I expect the price to move lower further in the short term after pullbacks until the strong resistance zone (marked in red) shown in the image below holds”.

Current Scenario – My plan didn’t change in AUDCHF, that is until the strong resistance zone holds my short term view still remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.

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