Hi Traders! Arvinth here from the Home Trader Club team. The weekly summary and review of March 10th 2023 is here. It is now time to recap and summarize the trade setups that we had during this week. Below you will find a short explanation of all the trade setups we had this week and how it has currently developed now.

Trading Ideas (Blog Posts)

GBPCHF – My idea here was “Looking at the H4 chart, we could see that the price which is moving higher has created a bullish trend pattern in the form of three higher highs, and higher lows, we may consider this as another evidence of bullish pressure. Generally, after a bullish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then potential continuation higher. Currently, it looks like a correction is happening, also we had two strong resistance zones that have formed and the price which was moving higher has broken above these zones and is holding above them. After the breakout, these strong resistance zones are acting as two strong support zones for us. So based on all this, until both these strong support zones shown in the image below(marked in green) hold my short-term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further after pullbacks”.

Current Scenario – In GBPCHF my short-term view was bullish and I was expecting the price to move higher further until the two strong support zones hold. The price failed to hold in the first strong support zone. Currently, the price is holding in the second strong support zone. Until the second strong support zone holds my short term bullish view still remains the same here. Alternatively, if we get a valid breakout below the second strong support zone then this bullish view will be invalidated.

NZDCAD – My idea here was “On the H4 chart, we could see that the price which was moving higher has created higher highs based on the MACD indicator, which is a sign of gaining momentum towards the bullish side. Currently, it looks like a correction is happening in the form of double wave down. Also, we have a key support zone that has formed based on the 100%(0.83377) Fibonacci expansion level of the daily first wave and the 100%(0.83450) Fibonacci expansion level of the H4 first wave. So based on all this, until the key support zone (marked in blue) shown in the image below holds my short-term view remains bullish here. If we get a valid breakout above the most recent downtrend line we may then consider it as a validation for this short-term bullish view and may then expect the price to move higher further”.

Current Scenario – In this pair, the validation for the short-term bullish view which is a valid breakout above the most recent downtrend line happened as per the plan. My bullish view still remains the same here.

CADJPY – My idea here was “On the H4 chart, we have a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high which has formed at 100.277 and the second high which has formed at 100.877 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved lower and broke below the last low at 99.035 thus forming a classical setup of bearish divergence followed by bearish convergence, we may consider this as evidence of bearish pressure. As per the book scenario after a bearish convergence, we may expect corrections and then a further continuation lower. Currently, it looks like a correction is happening. In addition to this, the price has also broken below the most recent uptrend line which we may consider as another evidence of bearish pressure. Also, the ADX indicator gave a bearish signal here at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25 which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. So everything looks good here for the bears and until the strong resistance zone (marked in red) shown in the image below holds my short-term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further”.

(Note: You can learn about a Killer Forex Strategy “Double Trend Line Principle” here)

Current Scenario – Based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bearish here and I was expecting the price to move lower further after pullbacks until the strong resistance zone holds. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the bearish convergence, we had a small pullback and then the price moved lower further as I expected it to, delivering around 100 pips move so far!

You can see this move clearly on the M15 chart below.

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