Hi Traders! Dollar Index forecast follow up and update is here. On March 3rd I shared this “US Dollar Index Buy Idea From Strong Support Zone” post in trading view. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
US Dollar Index H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
In my forecast, I mentioned that “until the strong support zone holds my view remains bullish here”. On the H4 chart, the price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to. After the breakout of the most recent downtrend line, we had a pullback with the price reaching the strong support zone, respected it, and bounced higher from this zone. We also had a bullish hidden divergence that has formed between the first low that has formed on 25th February 2021 and the second low that has formed on 3rd March 2021 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as a fact provided by the market supporting the bullish view. The price then moved higher further providing an excellent move to the upside.
On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. The price which was moving lower created multiple false breaks with a bullish divergence between the first low that has formed at 90.730 and the second low that has formed at 90.620 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the last high at 90.865, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved higher after that.
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted us and took the right action according to that.
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To your success,
Vladimir Ribakov
Certified Financial Technician
