USDJPY to extend trading ranges on the downside below 102.00 (extract from Weekly Market Forecast 4th of May 2014)


The US dollar closed the week lower against the Japanese yen even after the positive nonfarm payroll report. The USDJPY is now threatening to break an important bullish trend line on the 4 hour chart. I think if the bias turns against the US dollar, then selling a break in the USDJPY pair remains a good option in the short term.

As mentioned there is a bullish trend line, as can be seen in the 4 hour chart shown below. There is also a major support at around the 102.00-101.90 levels. If the pair manages to break the trend line and support level and closes below it, then we can jump into a sell trade.

Initial target should be around the 101.30 level, and final target could be around the 100.40 level. Stop should be placed above the broken trend line and support level.

Major events scheduled in the upcoming week
The US dollar was seen trading higher this past week, as one of the most important events turned in the favor of the US dollar. The US Nonfarm payroll and the unemployment rate data came out positive. The US unemployment rate dropped to 6.3% from 6.7% and nonfarm payrolls registered a reading of above 280K. However, soon after the rise in the US dollar, it traded lower again, as the tensions in the Ukraine ignited some swing moves in the market. Overall, the market ended where it started the week. The best performer was again the GBPUSD, as the pair traded a lot higher this past week.

Let us look at all major events lined up in the upcoming week.
Sunday – Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI.

Monday – Euro zone PPI data, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Australia’s imports, exports and trade balance data.

Tuesday – RBA interest rate decision, Spanish unemployment data, Spanish services PMI, German services PMI, Italian services PMI, Euro zone services PMI, UK services PMI, US trade balance data, Canadian trade balance data, Canadian Ivey PMI, New Zealand unemployment data and Australia’s retail sales data.

Wednesday – Swiss unemployment data, Fed’s chair Yellen speech, Australia’s unemployment data, Chinese imports, exports and trade balance data.

Thursday – German industrial production data, Spanish industrial production data, ECB interest rate decision, BOE interest rate decision and Chinese CPI data.

Friday –UK industrial production data, UK manufacturing production and Canadian unemployment data.

This analysis is taken from Weekly Market Forecast, which also includes trade opportunities on: EURUSD, EURGBP, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, AUDNZD, GOLD, OIL and INDICES.
Get it HERE: Vladimir’s Markets Forecast

Happy trading friends!


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