Hi Traders! AUDJPY forecast update and follow up is here. On June 9th I shared this AUDJPY Forecast And Technical Analysis in my blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
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Now let’s summarize the idea first:
- 1 AUDJPY D1(Daily) Chart Analysis – Key Resistance Zone, Parabolic Sar, Volumes Indicator, Stochastic Oscillator
- 2 AUDJPY H4(4 Hours) Chart Analysis – Bearish Divergence, ADX Indicator, Parabolic Sar
- 3 AUDJPY H1(1 Hour) Chart Analysis – Bearish Divergence, Bearish Trend Pattern
- 4 AUDJPY H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
AUDJPY D1(Daily) Chart Analysis – Key Resistance Zone, Parabolic Sar, Volumes Indicator, Stochastic Oscillator
On the daily chart, we have a key resistance zone that has formed based on the 161.8% fibonacci expansion level of the first wave at 77.055 and the 161.8% fibonacci expansion level of the second wave at 76.960. The price which was moving higher reached this key resistance zone, respected it, and is currently moving lower. While looking at the Parabolic Sar we could see that the dot is above the price. Also while looking at the Volumes indicator we could see that the volumes were dropping. In addition to this based on the Stochastic Oscillator we could see that the price has reached its extreme. We may consider these as evidences of bearish pressure. We may now move down to lower timeframes and see if we can find evidences supporting this bearish view.
AUDJPY H4(4 Hours) Chart Analysis – Bearish Divergence, ADX Indicator, Parabolic Sar
Looking at the H4 chart we could see that the price has created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed on 3rd June 2020 and the second high that has formed on 5th June 2020 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Also while looking at the Parabolic Sar we could see that the dots are above the price which we may consider as another evidence of bearish pressure. In addition to this the ADX indicator gave bearish signal at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25, we may consider this as another evidence of bearish pressure. So the bottom line here is that the H4 chart has evidences supporting the bearish view.
AUDJPY H1(1 Hour) Chart Analysis – Bearish Divergence, Bearish Trend Pattern
Looking at the H1 chart we could see that the price has created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed on 3rd June 2020 and the second high that has formed on 7th June 2020 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Also after the bearish divergence, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern which we may consider as another evidence of bearish pressure. So based on all this, my view remains bearish here and we may expect further continuation lower after retraces.
AUDJPY H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario
Based on the above-mentioned analysis my view here was to expect further continuation lower after retraces. On the H1 chart, the price moved perfectly as per my plan, the retrace that I was looking for has happened and then the price moved lower exactly as I expected delivering 300+ pips move.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at majority of the times and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions”.
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Happy Trading!
Yordan Kuzmanov
Chief Trader at the Traders Academy Club
