Hi Traders! AUDCHF short term forecast follow up and update is here. On November 14th, 2023 I shared this “AUDCHF Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H4 chart the price which was moving higher has created a bullish trend pattern in the form of three higher highs, and higher lows, we may consider this as evidence of bullish pressure. Generally, after a bullish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then potential continuation higher. Currently, it looks like a correction is happening and the price which is moving lower has reached a strong support zone. Also, we could see that the price which is moving lower created a bullish hidden divergence between the first low that formed at 0.56136 and the second low that formed at 0.57718, followed by a continuing bullish divergence between the first low that formed at 0.57718 and the second low that has formed at 0.57247 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as evidences of bullish pressure. In addition to this, based on the Stochastic Oscillator we could see that the price is nearing it’s extreme. There are two possible scenarios from here, the price might move higher from the current zone or alternatively if it moves lower then the next area to look for bullish setups with bullish evidences would be the second strong support zone. Until both these strong support zones (marked in green) shown in the image below holds my short term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further.
AUDCHF H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario
In AUDCHF, based on my technical analysis I mentioned that “until both the strong support zones (marked in green) shown in the image below holds my short term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further.”. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. The price respected the first strong support zone and provided a first move to the upside and delivered 110+ pips move. We then had a pullback with the price reaching the first strong support zone again and respected it. The price then bounced higher and provided a second move to the upside and delivered 150+ pips move!
On the H1 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. The price which was moving lower created a bullish divergence between the first low that has formed at 0.57248 and the second low that has formed at 0.57099 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the most recent downtrend line, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved higher after that and provided a nice move to the upside!
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
